UFC Fight Night takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas and will be headlined by a welterweight bout between Colby Covington and Tyron Woodley.
Here's a top play for the event:
$100 parlay to win $146.25
This would've been a different story two years ago. But now, Covington should have his way with Woodley, which is why the 32-year-old is heavily favored by oddsmakers. Covington is too expensive to take straight, but he's a perfect choice for a parlay.
The former interim champion and Woodley were expected to meet in 2017 or 2018 when Woodley held the 170-pound title, but the fight didn't come to fruition. Now, the Missouri native has lost two fights in a row in uninspiring fashion, and many people have questioned his ability to pull the trigger.
This seems like perfect timing for Covington. He's clearly an elite fighter despite coming off a loss to current champion Kamaru Usman last December. Woodley would've been the favorite against Covington two years ago, but now there are several top welterweights that would be favored to beat Woodley. The only downside for Covington is that the fight isn't nearly as big as it would've been in 2018.
Stylistically, this will be a nightmare matchup for Woodley. Covington is a gritty wrestler who suffocates his opponents by constantly moving forward and using pressure. His striking has gotten a lot better in recent years, and he does a lot of great work from the clinch.
Woodley has struggled against these kinds of fighters, notably Usman and upcoming title challenger Gilbert Burns. The 38-year-old stood back and waited in his loss to Burns in May, failing to do any sort of damage. Expect this fight to look quite similar. Covington will get up close and batter the 38-year-old with strikes, and he could eventually get Woodley to the mat.
The former champ's best shot at a win over Covington is a one-punch knockout. When a fighter is on a downward trajectory, their power is the last thing that diminishes. Woodley can still knock out anybody. But as long as he doesn't find Covington's chin with a perfect shot, this should be one-way traffic for "Chaos."
The other side of the parlay sees Johnny Walker taking on Ryan Spann at light heavyweight, and it's a fight I can't see going past the first round.
Walker started his UFC career with a trio of first-round finishes, two of which didn't go longer than a minute. The Brazilian's last two fights were losses: one ended in the first round, and the other went the distance.
Spann, meanwhile, is also a finisher through and through. Ironically, his last victory was a split decision over Sam Alvey, but before that, he finished Antonio Rogerio Nogueira via TKO and Devin Clark via submission in less than a round and a half. Spann is an absolute monster on the feet.
The odds of either Walker or Spann grinding out a decision are incredibly low. This will be a stand-up war, and both fighters throw with everything they have. Walker and Spann can knock out anybody, and I can't see both of their chins holding up for more than a round and a half, never mind the full 15-minute clash.
Here are the full odds from theScore Bet for UFC Fight Night on Sept. 19: