What will Bichette's next contract look like?

Bo Bichette is playing himself into a significant payday this offseason.

The Toronto Blue Jays shortstop is enjoying a resurgent season in which he leads the majors in hits, solidifying himself as the second-best position player on the market this winter behind Kyle Tucker.

Bichette's been adamant about his desire to remain in Toronto long-term, repeatedly saying that his goal is to spend his entire career with the same organization. While that scenario remains on the table, the Blue Jays opted to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ahead of his final season under team control, but have so far let the campaign play out with Bichette.

With the Blue Jays looking to keep their competitive window open well beyond this year, re-signing Bichette appears to be a realistic option. Until then, though, he gets closer to free agency with each passing day.

So what type of contract will Bichette likely sign for?

FA shortstops historically cash in

Bichette will hit the open market entering his age-28 season, the same age as Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson. Francisco Lindor's 10-year, $341-million contract is the record for any shortstop, but he agreed to the deal before hitting free agency. Corey Seager's 10-year, $325-million contract is the record for a free agent at the position.

Bichette has faced criticism for his defensive play throughout his career. The advanced metrics don't rank him well - fifth percentile in outs above average, 29th in arm strength, and has been worth minus-8 defensive runs saved this season - a huge factor when comparing him to some of the other shortstops who signed big-ticket deals. Still, he possesses an adequate glove and enough athleticism that should keep him at shortstop for at least the early years of his next contract.

But what teams are really buying with Bichette is his bat.

He's twice led the majors in hits, and is slashing .300/.340/.475 with 16 home runs, 35 doubles, and four stolen bases on the year. He's striking out at a career-low rate (14.9%), while posting the second-best hard-hit rate of his career (48.9%).

Bichette is second in the majors among shortstops in doubles this season, while also sitting third in slugging, fifth in OPS and wRC+, and ninth in homers and fWAR.

He's having a great platform campaign to head into free agency with.

Bichette's fWAR does lack compared to most of the other shortstops on this list. Turner's fWAR was boosted not only because of his strong offensive ability, but also his solid defense, elite baserunning and speed. Swanson, Seager, Correa, Báez, and Story all rated highly defensively at the time of signing.

Bichette's best comparison on both sides of the ball is Bogaerts, who was two years older when he hit free agency. The two are more well-rounded hitters as opposed to sluggers, and both come with some defensive issues, though each still collects plenty of extra-base hits while limiting strikeouts.

Bogaerts, who ranked in the first percentile in outs above average in 2021, did rank in the 88th percentile in his walk year. Advanced defensive metrics can be tricky to gauge, but Bichette has graded in the 19th percentile or worse in OAA in four of the last five campaigns while also having what's considered a below-average arm.

When looking at Bichette's total body of work the last few years, the numbers can seem slightly underwhelming - an injury-plagued 2024 season, in which he was limited to a .598 OPS over 81 games, drags things down. But outside of that campaign, he's never finished a year with an OPS under .800. He's been incredibly consistent when healthy.

Based on the precedent, Bichette's floor is easily $140 million. But when you factor in his age, a weak free-agent class, and what's expected to be an aggressive market of buyers, it should be no shock to see the price surpass $200 million. And as we saw when Bogaerts signed with the San Diego Padres, it only takes one aggressive owner and front office to blow any projection out of the water.

Where will Bichette's options be?

Even with the threat of a work stoppage after the 2026 season, Bichette is hitting the market at the perfect time. The upcoming free-agent class is loaded with starting pitchers, but Tucker and Bichette are the headliners, followed by Kyle Schwarber, who's a full-time DH. The position player group could be further bolstered should Alex Bregman, Cody Bellinger, and Pete Alonso opt out. The best shortstop after Bichette is Ha-seong Kim, who very well could exercise his $16-million player option and remain with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Either way, Bichette should have plenty of suitors.

Do the New York Yankees pivot away from an inconsistent Anthony Volpe? Do the Detroit Tigers supplement their young roster with a veteran like Bichette? Do the Los Angeles Dodgers take another big swing and move Mookie Betts back to second base or right field? Do the Astros sell high on Jeremy Peña and bring in Bichette as his replacement? Is there a surprise entrant like the Los Angeles Angels or Colorado Rockies with an owner who feels obligated to make a major signing? Maybe another team, like the Chicago Cubs or Washington Nationals, move him to a different position.

Based on everything Bichette's said publicly, his priority seems to be re-signing in Toronto - especially considering the success of this season, both personally and from a team perspective.

Acquiring Andrés Giménez last winter likely represented somewhat of an insurance policy for the Jays should Bichette leave. Giménez, who has played 84 career games at shortstop, is still owed $84 million after this year. That's a significant amount of money, but Giménez's first season in Toronto has been underwhelming, making the need to keep Bichette more urgent.

Toronto should have no problem making Bichette a strong offer - even after spending $500 million to extend Guerrero. The organization is still within its competitive window, and with several expiring deals coming off the books this winter and next - Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, George Springer, Kevin Gausman, and Daulton Varsho - payroll restraints shouldn't be an issue.

Wherever Bichette plays in the second half of his career, he'll certainly get paid well to be there.