Talking it out: What the heck are the Angels up to?

The Los Angeles Angels were the most aggressive club early this offseason prior to the Dodgers signing Blake Snell. Pretty wild stuff, right?

It's early - very early! - but the Angels account for four of the 12 free-agent signings to date. They've also made several trades, most notably adding Jorge Soler.

But, and I can't stress this enough, why?

Why are the Angels the aggressors? They're coming off a 99-loss season. There are roster aging, injury-prone players like Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Their farm system remains poor. Shouldn't they be focused on rebuilding, on overhauling their organization?

The following is a conversation - with myself - about what the perplexing Angels are up to.

Q: Did you have the Angels winning the offseason entering Tuesday?

A: I didn't. But it's nice to see a team being aggressive right out of the gate. Some general managers, like Atlanta's Alex Anthopoulos, believe the best opportunities exist early in the offseason, and it was the Braves who traded Soler to the Angels.

MLB should welcome more teams trying to compete. But in the Angels' case, the early moves feel like adding empty calories in terms of putting a contender on the field.

Q: Are the transactions an indicator of mounting frustration, especially after watching Shohei Ohtani move across town and win a ring? Are the Angels delusional?

A: If we squint, there's a modest 2025 bull case for optimists in Orange County.

For starters, the Houston Astros are still good but in decline from their MLB superpower status. The Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers are talented but flawed. The A's have no designs on contending, regardless of where they play.

The West was the AL's weakest division in 2024 and it may be again in 2025.

Los Angeles is also likely to benefit from regression to the mean. We typically hear regression and think "back to earth," but, in this case, because they were so poor on the field last year, they're due to move toward the MLB average.

There's one public projection available at the moment (Steamer) and it forecasts that the Angels' returning players will enjoy the second-best WAR improvement compared to their 2024 totals. Good news!

Of course, the projection includes 574 plate appearances and star-level performance from Trout, a workload level he hasn't reached since 2019.

Hope is required. Mandatory, even. But if one could simulate the 2025 season a thousand times, the Angels would walk away with a few division titles - that's baseball. Significant external help would bolster their long-shot chances, of course.

And maybe they know something we don't that explains these moves, something like being contenders for Japanese sensation Roki Sasaki.

Q: What can we expect from their additions?

A: Not much. They've raised their floor, but it's not enough. Four of their additions - Kevin Newman, Kyle Hendricks, Travis d'Arnaud, and Soler - are projected to combine for 3.9 WAR, so that's a limited improvement. Newman and d'Arnaud should upgrade the bench, but only Soler profiles as a regular.

While the investment in Hendricks is modest (one year, $2.5 million), he posted a 5.92 ERA last year and his skills are eroding over multiple seasons.

I do like the Yusei Kikuchi signing - he's a quality mid-rotation arm for a hopeful contender. The problem: He's the Angels’ ace. Before his signing, only the Athletics and Colorado Rockies were projected to have weaker rotations. That's a major issue.

His contract (three years, $63 million) is a bit of an overpay compared to FanGraphs' estimates (three years, $54 million), but given California's state taxes - and the state of the Angels - they must overpay for free-agent talent. Kikuchi could have trade value, too, assuming L.A. continues to struggle. The Toronto Blue Jays netted a solid return for him as a rental at this past summer's trade deadline.

Q: It's easy to dunk on the Angels in recent years, but with so many teams seemingly not interested in competing, shouldn't we welcome and celebrate any effort by clubs?

A: Yes. In theory.

Unfortunately, it's not clear how serious this contention attempt is. Fan bases shouldn't want misguided efforts that delay a club's return to relevance.

A serious win-through-spending effort would look more like what the Rangers did in the 2021-22 offseason. That's when they signed Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, who were at the peak of their star-level powers, to massive free-agent deals. They were core players for Texas' 2023 World Series team a year later. The Dodgers added megastars in free agency in recent offseasons, too.

But the Angels aren't courting Juan Soto and/or Corbin Burnes this offseason. They're engaged in half measures, at least to date.

What they should be focused on, above all else, is building a healthier organization from top to bottom.

They'd be better off in the long run by accumulating more prospects, as much draft capital, and as many bonus dollars as possible. But it's not clear ownership wants to accept a long-term plan.

For instance, the club would have been better off trading Ohtani in the summer of 2023 - or even earlier - instead of chasing unlikely playoff chances and allowing him to leave for nothing.

The Angels haven't demonstrated a willingness to play the long game. At all.

Q: So, you don't believe this shortcut is going to work?

A: Nope, and the root issue is - again! - their homegrown base isn't strong enough, and it isn't going to get stronger any time soon.

Consider their farm-system ranking by MLB Pipeline at the end of each season:

• 2022: 30th
• 2023: 28th
• 2024: 29th

Successful teams, even those with top payrolls like the Dodgers, have a strong draft-and-development system as their foundation.

Q: So, what you're actually saying is: Free Mike Trout?

A: It's a monumental baseball tragedy that one of the best players of this era has reached the postseason once, way back in 2014, when he compiled 15 plate appearances in an ALDS against the Royals.

The sad reality: Trout will likely need to wear another uniform for the baseball world to see him on the postseason stage again. The Angels’ plan is unlikely to come together.

Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.