Behind the numbers: Where the Guardians found hidden value

Very little about the Cleveland Guardians suggests they should be playing October baseball.

They're the No. 2 seed in the American League despite having the 23rd-ranked payroll. They secured a first-round bye and begin play Saturday in the division series versus the Detroit Tigers despite rostering few household names.

The Guardians were one of six teams to exceed 90 wins this season despite being tied for 10th in run differential.

They have only one starting pitcher in the top 100 of fWAR (Tanner Bibee is 20th).

They have only two position players who rank in the top 70: José Ramírez and Steven Kwan. Ramírez is one of the game's true superstars, though he's perhaps underappreciated playing in a small market. He came within one home run of authoring a 40-homer, 40-steal season and had a wRC+ of 141.

By about any measure, Cleveland has beaten expectations. Pundits didn't expect much from the club, nor did most projection systems. FanGraphs predicted the Guardians to go 80-82 and miss the playoffs.

How they became one of the top contenders in MLB isn't immediately obvious.

As one rival executive explained to theScore, it's simple: "They have the game's best ever bullpen."

Best ever?

According to Win Probability Added - which measures players' effect on games based on the change in win probability after each plate appearance - the Guardians do have the most effective relief corps since 1974, the first year in which the metric is available.

Because win expectancy generally features greater swings later in games as chances to change the outcome dwindle, it's seen as a better stat with which to measure relievers.

An elite bullpen can, perhaps more than any other team component, allow a club to overachieve.

Based on FanGraphs' calculations using WPA and run expectancy from the 24 base-out states (RE24), the Guardians' bullpen accounted for more than 11 wins based on its performance this season, led by closer Emmanuel Clase.

The Guardians had 42 come-from-behind victories this year, most in the AL, and they were tied for the fewest blown saves (15) with the Reds. However, Cincinnati had far fewer save opportunities, so Cleveland finished with the best save percentage (77%) in baseball.

"When a starter comes out, we are giving ourselves a chance," Guardians general manager Mike Chernoff told me recently. "When you have the most come-from-behind wins and the fewest blow leads, it's going to give you a chance to win more games. And I think that can be a little bit hidden because that's one aspect of the game that is overweighted in those situations."

Clase (47 saves, 0.61 ERA) is having a career year after already establishing himself as one of the game's best end-game options. Hitters simply don't get a good look at his 100-mph cutters. He's Mariano Rivera with added velocity.

Hunter Gaddis would be most teams' top relief option, but he's just a setup man in Cleveland with a 1.57 ERA. Same goes for Cade Smith (12.3 strikeouts per nine against 2.1 walks and a 1.91 ERA).

The group's 18% K-BB% mark ranks 24th all time among bullpens, another elite mark, and it doesn't walk a lot of opponents. Cleveland allows weaker-than-average contact when the ball is put in play as well.

The Guardians are also well-built for their ballpark. They enjoyed the best home-field record in the AL this season at 50-30.

The home-field advantage is notable this year as some portions of the ballpark's upper deck were removed amid winter renovations. Those removed areas are parallel to one another across the stadium. The open space is akin to opening two windows across from each other in a room, creating a wind-tunnel effect.

This new air flow, at least on certain days, is believed to have made the park more favorable to left-handed hitters.

The park is playing as the 10th-most favorable for lefties this season, according to BaseballSavant's ballpark factors (103), compared to an average ranking of 29th over the previous three years (94).

That matters because only the Boston Red Sox had more left-handed plate appearances this year than Cleveland (3,040).

The Guardians are the 10th-best offensive team at home (109 wRC+) but rank just 19th on the road (93 wRC+).

This might make it seem like Cleveland is susceptible to left-handed pitching, but the club owns MLB's greatest platoon advantage thanks to three switch-hitters and regular field platoons.

The Guardians deployed a platoon advantage in 71.6% of their plate appearances, five percentage points greater than the second-ranked Orioles and well above the MLB average of 54.1%.

On defense, Cleveland trailed only the Toronto Blue Jays in defensive runs saved (84). That suggests the club picked up about eight wins over the average defensive team thanks to defensive prowess from players like Andrés Giménez, who was tied for second in the majors with 20.

Clubhouse culture is the other hidden factor in a team's success.

After struggling in his first exposure to major-league pitching, Cleveland rookie first baseman Kyle Manzardo launched a go-ahead, two-run homer against the division-rival Twins on Sept. 16 en route to a come-from-behind victory.

Standing at second base was Cleveland first baseman Josh Naylor. He raised his arms into the air with much of the crowd as he tracked the ball into the right-field seats. When Manzardo reached home plate, Naylor emphatically greeted him with a bear hug and exclaimed something.

What did he say?

"I don't remember, I don't remember much of that trip around the bases," Manzardo told theScore of floating around the diamond after the biggest hit of his career. "He's a great teammate. It's easy to root for everyone here. Everyone has the same goal. It makes it more fun, more enjoyable to be around."

First-year manager Stephen Vogt was moved by the moment.

"I love these guys," Vogt said, fighting through tears. "They're so much fun to watch. They love each other. They work hard. That was an emotional night. And to see two teammates come together like that, that's powerful."

It was notable because Manzardo is likely the future at first base for the club. Naylor is a free agent after next season, and the Guardians typically don't pay free agents. Yet there was Naylor supporting his potential replacement.

The Guardians care about culture. They hired Vogt in part because he blended experience as a player with an appreciation of analytics, but also because he had a sense of humor. That trait was cited in the introductory press conference. That's a characteristic the club valued in longtime manager Terry Francona, who stepped down after last season.

Baseball is a grind. The coaches and players spend a lot of time around each other. The Guardians value humor as a way to make showing up at the clubhouse something players and coaches will look forward to.

Culture is one big reason why the club re-signed backup catcher Austin Hedges after he played elsewhere last season, Chernoff said.

"We knew what he meant to our culture. We missed a lot last year," he said.

Even though he's a poor hitter - Hedges jokes he’s been in a career-long slump - he's a catching savant and clubhouse presence. In 2022, he took the time to record his own voice into PitchCom so he could send personalized messages to pitchers.

He's one of the few veterans on the Guardians, who featured the youngest group of position players (26.1 years) in the majors this season.

"It's a lot harder to build the culture when you have the youngest team," Chernoff said. "You have guys that are just looking to survive in the big leagues as they are transitioning in.

"So, when you can weave in someone like Josh Naylor who has that type of attitude to help a young guy develop, José Ramírez who runs the bases harder than anyone on our team, it's hard not to want to keep up with them."

Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.