111th Grey Cup primer: Can Argos upset Bombers again without Kelly?

It's the Grey Cup rematch everyone wanted, one year later than expected.

The Toronto Argonauts and Winnipeg Blue Bombers face off in the 111th Grey Cup on Sunday, and CFL fans everywhere are hoping this one's as thrilling as their last showdown. Two years ago in Regina, these teams played one of the greatest Grey Cup games ever, a 24-23 Argos win clinched on a last-second blocked field goal.

The dynastic Bombers enter their fifth straight Grey Cup looking to silence the critics and return to the top after two straight gut-wrenching defeats. Toronto, as in 2022, is the underdog with little to lose - although that's largely because of Chad Kelly's injury. Can the Argos improbably upend a dynasty yet again?

Here's everything you need to know about the 111th Grey Cup.

The basics

When: Sunday, Nov. 17 at 6 p.m. ET
Where: BC Place in Vancouver, British Columbia (17th Grey Cup hosted by Vancouver, 10th at BC Place)
Who: Toronto Argonauts (25th Grey Cup appearance) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (29th)
TV: TSN and CTV; RDS (French); CBS Sports Network (United States); CFL+ (Outside North America)
Line: Winnipeg -475
Spread: Winnpeg -9.0
Over/Under: 50.5 points

How they got here

Argonauts: Toronto's season began with a serious off-field issue. Star quarterback Chad Kelly was suspended for the first nine games of the regular season after violating the CFL's gender-based violence policy. On the field, the Argos went 5-4 to start the year before Kelly was reinstated under a last-chance agreement with the league. Kelly's return and a powerful defense helped the Argos clinch a home playoff date for the fourth straight year. Toronto put up a franchise playoff-record 58 points versus Ottawa in the semifinal, then got some revenge for last year against Montreal in the East final, holding them off after Kelly's injury to clinch their second Grey Cup berth in three seasons.

Blue Bombers: It sure looked like the dynasty was ending at the start of the year. The Bombers had all of Manitoba sweating by stumbling to an 0-4 start and were 2-6 through eight weeks. Then something finally clicked in Week 9, when the Bombers shut out BC 25-0 to kick off an eight-game winning streak. They won nine of their final 10 regular-season games to finish on top of the West Division for a fourth straight year. After a bye, Winnipeg thoroughly dismantled Saskatchewan in the West final to become the third team in modern CFL history with five straight Grey Cup appearances.

Previous meetings

Both regular-season games between these clubs were tight, low-scoring battles. In Week 8 at BMO Field, the Argos won 16-14 despite QBs Cameron Dukes and Nick Arbuckle combining for just 124 passing yards. Bombers QB Zach Collaros threw for 317 yards, but it wasn't enough. The Argos' defense forced a late turnover on downs, and Lirim Hajrullahu booted a walk-off overtime field goal.

The Oct. 11 rematch in Winnipeg saw the Argos win 14-11 to clinch a playoff berth. Kelly threw for 203 yards and a touchdown, but once again Toronto's defense engineered the victory by forcing two turnovers and sacking Collaros seven times. Folarin Orimolade sealed the win with an interception on the final play. These two defeats to Toronto are Winnipeg's only losses since July 19.

Storylines to follow

Arbuckle's moment

All eyes will be on Arbuckle, the six-year veteran who's suddenly Toronto's unlikely Grey Cup starter following Kelly's season-ending leg injury last week.

If Arbuckle has any nerves, he can seek counsel from head coach Ryan Dinwiddie, who found himself in this exact situation 17 years ago. Dinwiddie was Winnipeg's little-used backup QB in 2007 and was forced into action when Kevin Glenn broke his arm in the fourth quarter of that year's East final. After finishing the Bombers' 19-9 win over the Argos, of all teams, Dinwiddie made his first CFL start in the Grey Cup; though he held his own given the circumstances, he threw three interceptions in his team's loss.

While the 2007 parallels are fascinating, there's one important difference: Sunday won't be Arbuckle's first real CFL action. The 31-year-old's a veteran with starting experience, and won a ring as Bo Levi Mitchell's backup in Calgary (he had a few short-yardage rushes in the 2018 Grey Cup). Dinwiddie attempted just 52 passes in two CFL seasons before he was thrust into a championship game; Arbuckle, by contrast, completed 65 passes for 799 yards and four TDs this year alone, and won one of his two starts. He looked very comfortable after taking over for Kelly in the East final, especially on the final drive that sealed Toronto's win.

This isn't to say Arbuckle's going to torch a powerful Winnipeg squad that's firing on all cylinders. He's likely going to face tons of pressure from a Bombers defense that allowed the fewest points in the CFL all season long. It will be an uphill battle. But having a veteran under center on Sunday instead of the inexperienced and inconsistent Dukes gives Toronto that much more a fighting chance. Arbuckle's waited a long time for this moment, he's got plenty of weapons at his disposal, and shouldn't be too overcome by the moment's magnitude. He'll be in Grey Cup lore forever if he can somehow pull this off.

Keeping Brady Oliviera quiet

Pulling off the upset will require Toronto to stop or at least slow down Oliveira. The Argos are talented enough to do that, allowing the second-fewest rushing yards in the league while holding Oliveira to only 160 yards across their two meetings with Winnipeg this season.

Of course, those regular-season stats against the Argos may not matter. Oliveira was held to under 50 yards in each of his three regular-season games versus Saskatchewan, then torched the Riders for 119 yards and a touchdown in the West final. Toronto has to assume he'll want to do the same thing to them Sunday. The Argos' front should be focused on finishing tackles and not letting the newly-crowned Most Outstanding Player find even a sliver of daylight, which is where he thrives like no one else - Oliveira collected a league-leading 891 yards after contact in 2024.

There's another reason for the Argos to be a bit worried Sunday. Their normally stingy rush defense sprung a bit of a leak in the East final, when Montreal rushed for 156 yards while averaging over nine yards per carry as a team. The Argos' overall defensive performance Saturday was very good, with six turnovers and four forced fumbles, but the Als' success on the ground should cause a bit of concern. Whatever happened with the run D on Saturday needs to be patched up quick, because if Oliveira breaks free even a little bit, the Cup's probably coming back to Winnipeg.

Bombers' line vs. the 'Sack Exchange'

The Blue Bombers' offensive line, anchored once again by future Hall of Famer Stanley Bryant, remains a strength of the team and turned in perhaps its best performance of the season last week. But some cracks started to show at various points this year - particularly against the Argos.

The "Toronto Sack Exchange" is the league's most feared defensive front for a reason, tallying 48 sacks in the regular season and another six in the playoffs so far. Four Argos had at least six sacks this year; Jake Ceresna and Ralph Holley were both tied for the league lead with eight. This group ran wild against the Bombers, sacking Collaros 12 times in two games, with seven of those coming in Week 19. Winnipeg can't let that happen again Sunday.

Keeping Collaros protected against such a dominant defense is enough of a challenge on its own. But the O-line also has to worry about opening space for Oliveira, something it couldn't do against Toronto previously. And then there's the task of containing Argos linebacker and defensive captain Wynton McManis, who had eight tackles and a knockdown the last time he saw Winnipeg. McManis has been a beast in the playoffs so far, and will be all over the field Sunday. He may even try to get Collaros himself.

The key to a Bombers victory likely lies with their O-line. Protect Collaros as well as they did last week and he can turn this into a shootout, which should favor Winnipeg given the Argos' QB situation. A big day for the "Sack Exchange" will have the closing bell ringing loudly in Toronto.

Special teams factor

From rouges to blocks, special teams played a significant role in recent Grey Cup results for both these franchises. Expect this again Sunday.

The big game-breaker to watch is Janarion Grant, this year's Most Outstanding Special Teams player. Grant was a big part of two Bombers championship teams, and had a record 102-yard punt return TD in the 109th Grey Cup against Toronto - but he's an Argo now, and you know he's itching to stick it to his old club. His 71-yard TD return last week helped shift the East final's momentum back to Toronto. Beyond the house calls, Grant - who averaged nearly 15 yards per punt return - can tilt the field-position battle in the Argos' favor, a huge factor as they try to win a Grey Cup with their backup QB. A shorter field could allow Arbuckle to lean on star running back Ka'Deem Carey more often, rather than tempting fate by airing it out against the league's best secondary.

The Blue Bombers' special teams are solid; Sergio Castillo remains a reliable field-goal kicker, and they had a blocked punt in the West final. However, Saturday's game wasn't clean for their special-teams unit: they fell victim to a fake punt in the third quarter, and returner Lucky Whitehead's fumble of a punt deep in his own zone nearly got the Roughriders back into the game. Winnipeg will need to clean up those issues Sunday.

Finish the job, Zach

Collaros is one of the premier QBs of his era, yet his Grey Cup struggles are mounting. In four Grey Cup games with the Bombers, he's thrown just two touchdown passes, both in their 2021 win over Hamilton.

Certainly, some credit should be given where it's due for that performance three years ago. Collaros came up huge in 2021 despite also throwing two picks, and the Bombers don't go back-to-back without him. But he's hardly looked himself in the last two games and it's cost Winnipeg dearly. Point to Cody Fajardo engineering the drive of his life or Robbie Smith's shocking block all you want, but the fact is the Bombers lost the last two because Collaros didn't give his team - the better team - the best chance to win.

For the third straight season, the Bombers are the clear Grey Cup favorite, as they should be. They have the better record, the better QB, and enter the game playing their best football. Collaros was nearly flawless in the West final. Yet once again, none of that will matter if he fails to throw a TD in a third straight Grey Cup.

Collaros needs to do more than just win another ring Sunday. He needs to win it with a career-defining game. He's a Hall of Fame QB no matter what, but his legacy - and perhaps that of these great Blue Bombers teams, whose back-to-back Grey Cup wins to start this run might be forgotten with a third straight loss - are hinging on his performance.

Prediction

We picked the favorite Blue Bombers each of the last two years, only to watch them snatch defeat from the jaws of victory both times. These Bombers teams are among the best in CFL history no matter Sunday's result and deserve plenty of respect - but we're not falling for this a third time. Plus, Toronto's defense seems to have Winnipeg's number. Argos 16, Blue Bombers 13