The Fast Break: Deadline for extending fourth-year players passes with notable names unsigned

With the October 31 deadline for fourth-year players to sign extensions with their teams now behind us, youngsters like Greg Monroe, Eric Bledsoe, Gordon Hayward and other notable names are headed for restricted free agency come July.

That may seem like a disappointing development for the Pistons, Suns, Jazz and other teams who failed to get deals done, but the truth is that there’s very little risk involved and more teams should actually go this route rather than rushing to beat the deadline by bidding against themselves.

Sure, your young budding star may be unhappy or feeling slighted right now, but sulking or letting it affect their play will only hurt their earning ability in the summer, so that’s not exactly a viable option. And yes, other teams can now offer that player a big contract once July rolls around, but it’s called 'restricted' free agency for a reason, because you still control the situation by having the right to match any offers.

The only real risk is that the player in question signs the one-year qualifying offer available to them next season instead of opting for restricted free agency, allowing them to become unrestricted free agents in 2015 after that additional season. But to put things in perspective, Monroe's qualifying offer for next season is worth $5,479,934, Hayward’s is worth $4,677,708 and Bledsoe’s just $3,726,966. Do you really think a young athlete with guaranteed long-term money being offered to him would give up that chance at a lucrative long-term contract (as an RFA)  just to stick it to his current team by taking a much cheaper one-year deal and waiting a whole year for UFA status?

And if they end up going that route because no team made them an offer as an RFA, well then that likely only proves you were correct not to lock up that player for big money right now anyway.

Sometimes you can reach a fair deal with a player before the October 31st deadline, as the Jazz and Derrick Favors did, but even in that situation, you often end up having to commit long term dollars to a young player at a rate that he isn’t close to actually being worth yet, with the hopes that they become that player over the next couple of years. And overpaying today for future potential can be dangerous in a cap world. This is why I just didn’t quite understand the Wizards and Kings rushing to lock up John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins to max extensions this summer.

Unless a player has already emerged as a surefire star after three seasons, as Paul George (an elite defensive player at age 23 with an evolving offensive game) has in Indiana, or unless you can lock up a budding star at a rate that you believe is a bargain, or at worst, fair, then letting the October 31 deadline pass and allowing the player to reach restricted free agency is probably the smart play.

It shouldn’t be seen as a failure on the part of the organization.

All salaries courtesy of ShamSports

About last night...

Bulls 82, Knicks 81 - Derrick Rose hit a game-winning floater with 5.2 seconds remaining to cap what was an ugly affair.

Clippers 126, Warriors 115 - Chris Paul turned in the performance of the early season thus far to best a hot shooting Stephen Curry, whose 38 points included a 9-of-14 three-point barrage.

Line of the night: Chris Paul - 42 Pts (12/20 FG, 16/17 FT, 2/6 3PT), 15 Ast, 6 Stl, 2 Reb, 6 TO in 37 Mins.

Play of the night:

"Dropping the anvil!"

Bonus highlight: Things get chippy between DeAndre Jordan and Andrew Bogut

Chuck says: "If Shaq go play in Mexico, I'm coming out of retirement and playing with him."

Around the Association:

- There are 13 games on the schedule tonight, headlined by Brooklyn's home opener against Miami. If the Heat, fresh off a stunning upset at the hands of the Sixers, need some extra motivation, Deron Williams says the Nets feel like they're the better team. Right now what the Nets are is 0-1, with a loss to the Cavs the only actual statement they've made.

- More bulletin board material, as with the Mavericks set to host the Rockets tonight, Mark Cuban calls Howard's decision to join Houston (instead of his Mavs) "a mistake in judgement." Cuban went on to say that if a star player is as good as they think they are, they should choose the best organization in free agency rather than the team with the best current supporting cast. I wonder if Cuban would be saying that had he been able to entice Howard with one of the other free agents he struck out on, like Chris Paul or Deron Williams.

- Carmelo Anthony declaring his desire to be a free agent a few weeks ago was met with pandemonium in the New York media, but now Anthony is saying he wants to retire in New York. The truth is that 'Melo will opt out of his contract after this season to secure another long-term max contract (likely from the Knicks), not to necessarily bolt NYC. If he remains a Knick, though, Anthony will have to put up with another sub par supporting cast next season, as the Knicks will still be capped out, without any really valuable young assets or many draft picks to package for another star. So if he does decide to re-up with New York, Anthony better be prepared to wait until 2015 to lure any marquee sidekicks.

- As seen above, the Clippers and Warriors appear to have some bad blood brewing, but it all started in an early season game last year, and has reached a point where the Clips didn't even want to share chapel service with Golden State. How fitting, then, that their next matchup just so happens to be on Christmas Day?