Skip to content

Byron Nelson betting preview: Scheffler due to break through in Texas

Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images Sport / Getty

New to golf betting? Check out theScore's PGA Tour wagering guide here. All odds listed are courtesy of theScore Bet and are subject to change.

Rory McIlroy came through for us in a big way last week by claiming the Wells Fargo Championship at +2000. Let's see if we can keep the winning momentum going!

The PGA TOUR is in Texas this week for the AT&T Byron Nelson from TPC Craig Ranch, which has never hosted a TOUR event before. Researching potential picks at a new course takes some extra effort, but it could paint a clearer picture of who the best players are without course history muddying the waters.

The course

  • TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, Texas
  • 7,468 yards, par 72
  • Bentgrass greens, Zoysiagrass fairways and rough
  • All four par 5s under 570 yards

Quotes from the pros

"Pretty generous off the tees. I think a long hitter definitely has an advantage. But they will go pretty low, I would imagine. So someone with a lot of offense," Colt Knost said on Twitter.

"I think the biggest defense of this place really is the wind. Typically, when I've played here, it's fairly wide open, it's very long, especially when you have Zoysia grass, the ball doesn't roll very far. Getting weather as well is going to slow down the ball off the tee, so it's going to benefit a lot of the longer hitters," said Will Zalatoris.

Past Byron Nelson winners

2020: Canceled
2019: Sung Kang (-23) over Matt Every, Scott Piercy
2018: Aaron Wise (-23) over Marc Leishman
2017: Billy Horschel (-12) in playoff over Jason Day
2016: Sergio Garcia (-15) in playoff over Brooks Koepka
2015: Steven Bowditch (-18) by four over three golfers
2014: Brendon Todd (-14) over Mike Weir
2013: Sang-moon Bae (-13) over Keegan Bradley

The favorites

Player Odds
Jon Rahm +800
Bryson DeChambeau +1000
Jordan Spieth +1200
Daniel Berger +1800
Scottie Scheffler +2000
Matt Fitzpatrick +2100

Jon Rahm is the favorite at +800, but he's a pass considering Bryson DeChambeau is right below him at +1000. The long-hitting American is a tempting option based on the early chatter of what it'll take to win. He played really well on the weekend at Quail Hollow and would be the pick if you could only take one player in the field.

But it isn't always that simple in golf betting, especially when there are some big odds out there. And that's why Scottie Scheffler at +2000 is the most intriguing selection at the top. The 24-year-old grew up in Texas and competed at TPC Craig Ranch alongside Zalatoris. Any familiarity with the course and how the wind can impact certain shots is extremely beneficial. More on Scheffler later.

The next tier

Player Odds
Brooks Koepka +2400
Hideki Matsuyama +2400
Will Zalatoris +3000
Sam Burns +3500
Marc Leishman +3800
Harris English +4500
Si Woo Kim +4500

Brooks Koepka kicks off the next range in his first start since the Masters. Usually, +2400 would be a good value for the four-time major winner, but his knee injury makes it really hard to tell where his game is currently at.

Hideki Matsuyama is also making his first start since winning the green jacket. It's unlikely he's played much golf between then and now, so you're better off passing on what will be a rusty Matsuyama.

Zalatoris at +3000 is the best option out of this tier. He was priced similarly last week at the Wells Fargo Championship in a much tougher field and has a rare advantage over the competition with some familiarity at TPC Craig Ranch. The Byron Nelson would be a very fitting spot for Zalatoris to secure his first win and finally earn his full PGA TOUR card.

Long shots

Due to the top-heavy field and a lack of options to consider in the mid-range, the door is open for a long shot to win if the favorites struggle.

Here are a few worth a deeper look at:

  • Sergio Garcia (+5000): The Spaniard won the Byron Nelson in 2016, and he tends to play some of his best golf in Texas. He ranks fourth in the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green over the past 50 rounds.
  • Jason Day (+5500): The Aussie is another former Byron Nelson winner, claiming his first PGA TOUR title in 2010. Australians have done well at this event before, and if Day is going to get his game back on track, a venue that is generous off the tee would be the spot to do it.
  • Aaron Wise (+7000): The 26-year-old took down the 2018 Byron Nelson and gained 9.3 strokes tee-to-green last week at the Wells Fargo en route to a top-10 finish. He profiles as the type of golfer that would succeed at TPC Craig Ranch.
  • Doug Ghim (+7000): The former Texas Longhorn has been striking the ball exceptionally well over the past couple of months. If he can get the flatstick going at all, he'll be in the hunt for his first TOUR win.
  • Wyndham Clark (+17500): He's long off the tee and consistently gains strokes on the greens. He's made three straight cuts and trending in the right direction.

Picks to win

Scottie Scheffler (+2000)

Julio Aguilar / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Scheffler is long overdue for his first win, and what better place to break through than in his home state of Texas.

His length off the tee will be a huge advantage, and his ability to make a bunch of birdies will keep him in the hunt all week long. He ranks seventh in the field in birdie-or-better percentage this season and 15th in strokes gained: off-the-tee. Plus, if the Texas breeze picks up and creates tough scoring conditions, his local knowledge will be extremely beneficial.

Ryan Palmer (+5000)

Sam Greenwood / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Ryan Palmer has played some of the best golf of his career this season but doesn't have a win to show for it. However, he holds the course record (61) at TPC Craig Ranch and should feel right at home as a Texas native.

The 44-year-old ranks fifth in the field in birdie-or-better percentage and 13th in the field in strokes gained: ball-striking (off the tee plus approach) over his past 100 rounds. His +5000 odds feel like a steal when you could have expected him to come in around +3000 in a field this strong.

Keith Mitchell (+7500)

Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Keith Mitchell played in the final pairing with McIlroy at Quail Hollow but ultimately came up short. Surprisingly, his impressive showing from last week hasn't been factored into his price at the Byron Nelson.

Mitchell gained a whopping 7.4 strokes off the tee at Wells Fargo, which ranked second in the field. He also led the field in strokes gained: ball-striking thanks to his strong iron play. If the 29-year-old can bring that form to TPC Craig Ranch, there's no reason to believe he can't replicate the success he found last week. His odds of +7500 are a steal.

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox