RBC Heritage betting preview: Trust Morikawa's irons at Harbour Town

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The PGA TOUR is in Hilton Head, S.C. this week for the RBC Heritage from Harbour Town Golf Links.

Some of the big names from last week's Masters made the short trip to the competition, but the field pales in comparison to last year's group. The 2020 edition was only the second event held following the COVID-19 shutdown, which led to the strongest field in the tournament's history.

From a betting perspective, RBC Heritage is one of the best events of the season. Almost anyone can win due to the nature of the course, and there is plenty of course history to draw from. Additionally, Sundays at Harbour Town tend to be thrilling - outside of last year, the previous seven champions all erased at least a two-shot deficit on Sunday to win.

The course

• 7,121 yards, par 71
• Poa annua grass greens
• Requires accuracy over distance off the tee
• Small greens reward pinpoint iron play
• Seven par 4s under 430 yards

Past winners

2020: Webb Simpson (-22) over Abraham Ancer
2019: C.T. Pan (-12) over Matt Kuchar
2018: Satoshi Kodaira (-12) in a playoff over Si Woo Kim
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13) over Luke Donald
2016: Branden Grace (-9) over Luke Donald, Russell Knox
2015: Jim Furyk (-18) in a playoff over Kevin Kisner
2014: Matt Kuchar (-11) over Luke Donald
2013: Graeme McDowell (-9) in a playoff over Webb Simpson
2012: Carl Pettersson (-14) over Zach Johnson

The favorites

Dustin Johnson is the favorite at +1100, and it's crazy to think he has the same odds to win the RBC Heritage as he did to win the Masters last week in a much tougher field. And maybe it's also crazy to take a pass on the world No. 1, but that's what we're going to do because rarely is betting the favorite a worthwhile option.

Webb Simpson is also a pass at +1200. There's no doubt the defending champion can go back-to-back at Harbour Town, but you're better off taking Johnson at roughly the same price.

Collin Morikawa is the most interesting option of the group at +1800. You could make a good argument that he should be the second favorite behind Johnson, but you're getting a discount on him because he's only played in the event once.

The next tier

Will Zalatoris is a name that jumps out from this large range. Zalatoris' talent was on full display at Augusta National en route to a runner-up finish, and he clearly has a game that can win. Odds of +2600 are reasonable if you think the rookie can strike while the iron is hot.

Kevin Na is interesting at +3500. Na finished tied-for-12th at Augusta and recorded a top-11 result in six of his 13 appearances at Harbour Town.

Brian Harman at +4000 deserves your attention, as well. Harman's playing very well as of late with a third at the Players and T12 at the Masters in his last two stroke-play events, and he also made it to the knock-out stage of the WGC-Match Play.

Si Woo Kim historically outperforms his baselines at Pete Dye-designed courses, and Matt Kuchar is a former winner who has a ton of experience at the RBC Heritage.

Long shots

Long shots have fared well at Harbour Town. C.T Pan, Satoshi Kodaira, and Wesley Bryan are three of the four most recent winners, and all had odds well over +10000.

Here are a few to consider:

• Chris Kirk (+6500) - Kirk's been extremely solid this season tee-to-green and is coming off a tied-for-sixth result at the Texas Open.
• Matt Wallace (+7500) - The Englishman is far too good of a player for a price this low. Wallace hit the ball beautifully at the Texas Open and played well at Augusta.
• Aaron Wise (+12500) - Wise has gained at least 5.5 strokes tee-to-green in back-to-back events. The South African native tends to play better at coastal courses, which Harbour Town is.
• Doug Ghim (+12500) - Ghim's gained strokes with approach shots in seven of his past eight events and flirted with contending on a few occasions. The soon-to-be 25-year-old is someone who has a good shot at winning their first TOUR title this season, and Harbour Town fits his style of game.
• Doc Redman (+15000) - The 23-year-old is starting to turn a corner after a brief slump. Redman has gained strokes through approach shots in four of his past six events and gained strokes on the greens in three straight tournaments.

Picks to win

Collin Morikawa (+1800)

Morikawa is elite but continues to not get priced that way. No offense to Patrick Cantlay, but what has he done to deserve better odds at an event than Morikawa? The answer is nothing.

The 24-year-old possesses all the tools you'd expect to see from an RBC Heritage winner. Morikawa's the best iron player in the world and is accurate off the tee. His short game doesn't get enough credit, but you shouldn't expect him to need it very often, assuming his approach game is locked in.

Morikawa recently won a WGC over a stacked field in Florida and was solid in only his second appearance at the Masters, where he came 18th at the tournament and shot 70 on Sunday.

The No. 4 ranked player in the world should be priced next to Simpson at +1200, but you're getting a discount and need to take advantage.

Matt Kuchar (+4500)

Kuchar showed form at the WGC-Match Play, making a run and coming in third, before then backing that performance up at the Texas Open, finishing tied for 12th and gaining 4.6 strokes tee-to-green.

By showing signs of life, the 42-year-old becomes a great pick at one of the few venues on TOUR where he can still win. Kuchar won at Harbour Town in 2014, came second in 2019, and has three other top-11 showings at the event since his victory.

You could do a lot worse than backing a former winner at +4500 who is in good form heading to a course they love.

Russell Henley (+6000)

Russell Henley is coming off a third-place result in his last start at the Honda Classic. Even though he gained 8.2 strokes on the greens that week, which seems unsustainable, it's a positive sign that he's feeling good with the putter.

The 32-year-old finished sixth at Harbour Town way back in 2013 but still has the same game to get the job done this year. Henley gained strokes through approach shots in 17 of his past 18 recorded events and has shown consistency with his short game over that same stretch.

Henley's odds could shorten closer to Thursday as he will be a popular selection given his combination of current form, course fit, and odds.