CJ Cup betting preview: Trust Morikawa to rebound in Vegas
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The recent trend of resurgent winners on the PGA Tour continued last week with Martin Laird snapping a seven-year drought by claiming the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open in a playoff. Hats off to whoever saw that coming.
Turning the page to the CJ Cup should help fuel the golf betting fire a little more than recent weeks due to the star power showing up for the no-cut event at Shadow Creek Golf Course in Las Vegas.
Even with Dustin Johnson's positive COVID-19 test forcing him to withdraw, the field is loaded with Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, and Jon Rahm headlining the 78-man group taking a shot at the $1.755-million winner's check.
The course
- Shadow Creek Golf Course, Las Vegas, Nevada
- 7,257 yards, par 72
- Bentgrass greens
- Water in play on nine holes
- Five of 10 par 4s over 450 yards
- One par 5 over 600 yards
Past winners (all in South Korea)
2019: Justin Thomas (-20) over Danny Lee
2018: Brooks Koepka (-21) over Gary Woodland
2017: Justin Thomas (-9) in a playoff over Marc Leishman
The event relocated from Jeju Island in South Korea to Las Vegas for the 2020 edition due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The favorites
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | +900 |
| Justin Thomas | +1200 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1200 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1400 |
With Johnson's absence, Jon Rahm is now the betting favorite at +900. There's no reason the Spaniard can't win this week, but it's tough to back a price below +1000 in a field with this much talent.
An obvious case could be made for any of these players, especially Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele, who both historically dominate no-cut events.
Rory McIlroy stands out as the best value of the group. His ball-striking turned a corner during the 2020 playoffs, which produced three straight top-12 finishes capped by an eighth-place showing at the U.S. Open.
The next tier
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Cantlay | +2000 |
| Matthew Wolff | +2000 |
| Brooks Koepka | +2500 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +2500 |
| Collin Morikawa | +3000 |
| Daniel Berger | +3000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +3500 |
| Abraham Ancer | +4000 |
| Scottie Scheffler | +4000 |
| Viktor Hovland | +4000 |
| Harris English | +4500 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | +4500 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +4500 |
| Sungjae Im | +4500 |
This range, topped by Patrick Cantlay and Matthew Wolff, features a larger group of players than usual due to the CJ Cup's limited field.
Cantlay contended last week before struggling in the final round, but Wolff is the better option at +2000. The 21-year-old followed his runner-up performance at the U.S. Open with a playoff loss last week at the Shriners Open. He's knocking on the door of his second Tour title.
Brooks Koepka is returning from knee and hip injuries that put him on the sideline for nearly two months. There's some intrigue at +2500, but there is also too much uncertainty around his form and health.
Collin Morikawa, on the other hand, shouldn't be +3000 and needs heavy consideration. The same goes for Daniel Berger, one of the best players on Tour since June, and Sungjae Im at a whopping +4500.
The long shots
The cream tends to rise to the top of these no-cut events, so predicting a long-shot winner is a tall order. With that said, some players with juicy numbers have demonstrated solid recent form and appear to fit the type of golfer that should do well at Shadow Creek.
Joaquin Niemann (+6000): He came 13th at last week's Shriners while putting well on another set of Bentgrass greens. If he can tidy up his approach play, he has the firepower to contend with the field's big boys.
Mackenzie Hughes (+10000): The Canadian has four top-15 showings in his last five starts, including a third-place result in Punta Cana.
Cameron Champ (+12500): He putted horribly last week and barely missed the cut. However, Champ is a proven winner with the distance to feast on Shadow Creek's par 5s and should have no problems on the lengthy par 4s.
Picks to win
Collin Morikawa (+3000)
We're going back to the well with Morikawa, who narrowly missed the cut last week despite shooting 6-under through two rounds. If it weren't for a wonky driver in last week's Round 1, Morikawa could have easily advanced to the weekend and went on the same run Wolff did.
Instead, you're getting a nice discount on a three-time winner who's the form and talent that resembles the market leaders - not the players priced around him. Morikawa should have zero issues at Shadow Creek because his ball-striking ability gives him a chance to win at every course on Tour.
Sungjae Im (+4500)
The ball-striking that made Im a consistency machine has returned after looking out of sorts for quite a while following a three-month layoff.
His 9.2 strokes gained: tee to green at the Shriners Open was his fourth straight week in the positives for that stat. His performance ranked third in the field and higher than Wolff and Austin Cook, who both lost in a playoff to Laird.
At his peak, Im is usually priced in the low +2000 range. He appears to be playing at - or at least nearing - the top of his game from a ball-striking perspective while at +4500. That's way too much value to pass up.