Shriners Open betting preview: Morikawa poised to win hometown event

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Sergio Garcia came out of nowhere to win the Sanderson Farms Championship last week. We had Cameron Davis at +6000 playing alongside Garcia in the final group Sunday, but it wasn't meant to be. Hats off to the Spaniard.

Let's turn the page to a much stronger field this week in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open - which will be referred to as the Shriners moving forward - that should get the golf betting juices flowing again after two underwhelming events.

Bryson DeChambeau is fresh off his U.S. Open victory and looking for his second Shriners title. Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, and Rickie Fowler are also in action to help make the group this week the strongest Shriners field in 32 years.

The course

• 7,255 yards, par 71
• Bentgrass greens
• All three par 5s under 610 yards
• Nine par 4s under 450 yards
• Recent winners also found success at the Memorial Tournament (Muirfield Village), Charles Schwab Challenge (Colonial Country Club), and the American Express (PGA West)

Past winners

2019: Kevin Na (-23) in playoff over Patrick Cantlay
2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-21) over Patrick Cantlay
2017: Patrick Cantlay (-9) in playoff over Alex Cejka, Whee Kim
2016: Rod Pampling (-20) over Brooks Koepka
2015: Smylie Kaufman (-16) over six players
2014: Ben Martin (-20) over Kevin Streelman
2013: Webb Simpson (-24) over Jason Bohn, Ryo Ishikawa

The favorites

DeChambeau is the obvious favorite at +700 following his dominant win at Winged Foot. As a past winner at TPC Summerlin, the price is fair for the longest hitting player on Tour. However, his number is simply too short for a week with plenty of value and talent elsewhere.

The same goes for former Shriners winners Webb Simpson and Patrick Cantlay, the latter who doesn't have a finish worse than second in three starts at the event. But +800 for Simpson is too short, and Cantlay isn't playing well enough to warrant backing at +1200.

That leads to the best value at the top in Morikawa at +1500, who recently missed the cut at the U.S. Open. He was victorious at Muirfield earlier this year and possesses all the tools required to win at TPC Summerlin. More on the No. 5 ranked player in a bit.

The next tier

At the top of the middle tier are two players with boatloads of talent that could easily win this week in Scottie Scheffler and Matthew Wolff.

Scheffler was the favorite last week but was clearly rusty in his first start since testing positive for COVID-19. Expect a bounce-back performance from the 24-year-old.

Wolff came second at the U.S. Open in his most recent start and was tied for 18th in his first Shriners last year. His combination of power and propensity to find a hot putter bodes well at nearly every course.

With that said, Rickie Fowler at +3000 stands out in this range. The 31-year-old is in the process of a swing change and the results paid off in his most recent start at the U.S. Open with his second-best ball-striking performance since winning the 2019 Phoenix Open. He's also played extremely well at Muirfield Village and came fourth at the Shriners in 2018.

The long shots

Aside from the two long-shot selections to win the tournament outright, these players are worth consideration in the top-five or top-10 markets:

Denny McCarthy (+8000): The best putter on the PGA Tour has figured it out with his approach play as of late. He came sixth at the Sanderson Farms last week and had two straight top 15s at the Shriners.

Chez Reavie (+1000): He tends to play well in Phoenix and came inside the top 22 at both events at Muirfield in 2020. He recently placed third at the Safeway Open and gained 3.1 strokes tee-to-green last week in Mississippi.

Aaron Wise (+15000): The Las Vegas native contended last week at the Sanderson Farms before struggling Sunday. He's a PGA Tour winner who has two top 15s in four starts at TPC Summerlin.

Maverick McNealy (+17500): The 24-year-old calls TPC Summerlin his home course. He's also an incredible putter who typically performs his best when the PGA Tour heads west.

Picks to win

Collin Morikawa (+1500)

There's so much to like about Morikawa this week that he'd be a consideration if his price was below +1000. First, he fits the trend of recent Shriners winners. He won at the 2020 Workday Charity Open at Muirfield and lost in a playoff at Colonial in the first event after the restart.

He also has the hometown narrative working in his favor. He lives minutes away from TPC Summerlin and will try to follow in the footsteps of Kevin Na and Ryan Moore, who are both Las Vegas residents and Shriners champions.

Then there is the talent. He's the top-ranked player in the field who separates himself from the rest with his world-class iron play. Plus, TPC Summerlin isn't a course that only rewards bombers. Each winner since 2009 has ranked inside the top 25 in driving accuracy for the week, which is Morikawa's bread and butter.

Abraham Ancer (+5000)

Abraham Ancer does a lot of what Morikawa does but not quite as well. However, at +5000, the Mexican provides tremendous value with his ability to contend. He was a runner-up twice during the 2019-20 campaign, one of those coming at a desert venue at PGA West. Ancer also tied for fourth at the 2018 Shriners Open.

Joaquin Niemann (+6000)

Joaquin Niemann is being undervalued compared to his similarly-skilled peers. The 21-year-old is a Tour winner who recently popped on leaderboards at the RBC Heritage and BMW Championship. While he doesn't have a ton of success at desert courses, he did come 10th at the 2018 Shriners and had top-10 finishes at Muirfield Village and Colonial.