Hart Trophy Rankings: Draisaitl, MacKinnon seize opportunity

The Hart Trophy race should be starting to crystallize now that most teams are halfway through their 2024-25 regular season schedules. On the other hand, the player who led the way in our November and December editions has been out for more than two weeks because of an injury.

The latter fact has opened the door for a new leader, and a pair of past MVPs are stating their cases to slide into the driver's seat. Both new contenders have raised their games and provided their teams with immense value since our last installment.

Here are our top five Hart contenders as we forge further into the new calendar year.

xGF% = Expected goals for percentage at five-on-five
GSAx = Goals saved above expected
GSAA = Goals saved above average

5. Jack Eichel, Golden Knights

Previous: 4

Eichel has kept himself on the fringes of this race with strong play at both ends. He's second among NHL forwards in goals above replacement (14.7) in 2024-25.

The Golden Knights center isn't known for two-way prowess, but he has a defensive GAR above zero (one) this season and has allowed only 2.14 goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five. He might not get Selke Trophy votes, but the ex-Buffalo Sabres forward is providing all-around value.

Eichel hasn't lit it up in terms of goal-scoring, but he's posted 18 more points than the closest Vegas player. The 28-year-old has notched 82% of his goals (nine) at even strength while sitting among the league leaders in even-strength points. He's also been one of the NHL's best facilitators. The American is tied for third in the league in assists this season, and he has 13 more than any of his teammates.

4. Connor Hellebuyck, Jets

Previous: 5

It's well-documented how rarely goaltenders show up on this list, and they win this award even less frequently. But Hellebuyck's outstanding play has kept him in the conversation for most of this season, and he still deserves to be in the mix. Winnipeg has a few talented skaters, but the elite netminder has been the biggest reason the Jets have become one of the NHL's best squads.

In addition to the tremendous statistics shown above, Hellebuyck has already matched his 2023-24 shutout total (five) in just over half the number of games. His underlying numbers are by far the best among goalies in this campaign, and he hit a big career milestone Tuesday night, notching his 300th win in a victory over the Nashville Predators.

The reigning Vezina Trophy winner is still our favourite to repeat and claim it for the third time. He's dominating the competition at the most important position, and that should earn him some MVP votes, too.

3. Kirill Kaprizov, Wild

Previous: 1

Kaprizov established himself as the Hart favorite over the first two-and-a-half months of the season, but he hasn't played since Dec. 23. The Wild have gone 5-2-0 during this stretch without him, which doesn't help his MVP case. But the injured winger's production is still significantly outpacing that of his teammates, and he did enough before getting hurt to remain in consideration.

The Russian leads all Wild skaters by eight goals, five assists, and 13 points despite having missed the past seven games. He sits second in the NHL in even-strength goals (20) and fifth in even-strength points (39) while ranking fifth with 1.47 points per game among those who've played more than one contest. Kaprizov has also logged the second-highest average ice time among the league's forwards.

The 27-year-old could salvage his MVP hopes if he doesn't miss much more time and maintains this level of production upon returning. It's not Kaprizov's fault he's injured, of course. But for now, it only feels right to give others their due.

2. Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche

Previous: Unranked

MacKinnon is part of a trio of superstars at Colorado's disposal along with Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar. However, the Nova Scotia-born center has been the most productive playmaker in the NHL this season. MacKinnon leads the league in assists by eight and points by seven. He paces the NHL in even-strength points (48), and his average ice time is first in the league among forwards.

Rantanen is outscoring MacKinnon by a sizeable margin, but the Canadian has 17 more assists and eight more points than his closest teammates (Makar and Rantanen, respectively). MacKinnon has been on fire lately as only the No. 1 name on this list has a better points per game rate (1.80) than his Avalanche counterpart (1.75) since our last edition among those with more than one game played.

The only reason MacKinnon isn't the MVP front-runner is that he hasn't excelled defensively. The Avalanche pivot has favorable xGF and scoring chances for percentages, but a minus-0.3 defensive GAR shows his game hasn't been as complete as that of our leader.

1. Leon Draisaitl, Oilers

Previous: Unranked

Draisaitl is always in the periphery of the MVP discussion, but being Connor McDavid's teammate can make it difficult to support his case. However, the 2019-20 Hart winner is now outshining the three-time recipient at both ends of the ice and providing unparalleled value to his team in the process.

The German forward leads the NHL in goals - in all situations by six and at even strength (24) by four - and ranks second in points in both scenarios, having notched 73.8% of those (45) at evens. MacKinnon has posted 70.6% of his points in those situations.

Draisaitl has long been a prolific scorer, but his 200-foot game is setting him apart in 2024-25. He leads all NHL skaters with 16.2 GAR. Draisaitl has been on the ice for only 1.77 goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five.

The 29-year-old isn't playing with McDavid at five-on-five, either. Draisaitl has been flanked by Vasily Podkolzin and Viktor Arvidsson on Edmonton's second line. The fact he's playing this well - offensively and defensively - in those circumstances makes it all the more impressive.

Keep an eye on:

• Connor McDavid, Oilers
• Nikita Kucherov, Lightning
• Quinn Hughes, Canucks

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)