Charting McDavid's path to 2,000 points
The first 1,000 points of Connor McDavid's prodigious career came pretty easily.
It took only 659 games, a mark only bested by Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, and Mike Bossy. The Great One (424) and Super Mario (513) are on their own planet, but McDavid missed out on third spot by only three games.
He hasn't missed out on exceeding modern-era legends, however. McDavid hit the 1,000-point threshold in 98 fewer games than Sidney Crosby and 211 fewer than Alex Ovechkin.
The Edmonton Oilers captain is in the most illustrious company imaginable not even 10 full years into his NHL tenure. He's on track to supplant his peers in GOAT debates.
McDavid has repeatedly stated he's not chasing individual glory, especially after last season's heart-wrenching defeat in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. But what he's doing on the stat sheet is impossible to ignore. At this rate, it shouldn't come as a shock if McDavid becomes the second player to notch 2,000 career points. Here, we break down the numbers to see how he could get there.
Top-5 scorers all time
| Rank | Player | Points | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wayne Gretzky | 2857 | 1487 |
| 2 | Jaromir Jagr | 1921 | 1733 |
| 3 | Mark Messier | 1887 | 1756 |
| 4 | Gordie Howe | 1850 | 1767 |
| 5 | Ron Francis | 1798 | 1731 |
We'll assume Gretzky is out of reach. (He's technically the first- and second-fastest player to notch 1,000 points, going from 0-1,000 in 424 games and 1,001-2000 in 433.) But Jagr's position as the second-most productive player in NHL history is in jeopardy.
McDavid will turn 28 in January. He has one more year on his current deal and is likely to get an eight-year pact from the Oilers beginning in 2026-27. Operating under the assumption he's got at least nine more seasons in him, health is the most important factor.
It's likely the only thing that'll stand in McDavid's way. Lemieux and Crosby would be in - or closer to - the 2,000-point club if injuries and illness didn't alter the prime of their careers.
McDavid's career points per-game rate is 1.52, good for third all time. It's unrealistic to assume McDavid will never miss a game again. And as omnipotent as he may seem, everyone regresses at some point.
| Player | P/GP (before 30) | P/GP (after 30) |
|---|---|---|
| Gretzky | 2.33 | 1.37 |
| Lemieux | 2.02 | 1.62 |
| Crosby | 1.31 | 1.15 |
| Jagr | 1.32 | 0.88 |
But McDavid's in the most productive stretch of his career. He's averaged 136 points over the past three seasons.
Due to injury and a slow start by his standards, McDavid currently sits at 19 points this season and 1,001 for his career. If he just meets his current pace of 107 for this campaign, he'll be at 1,089 career points. He'd then require an average of 101 points (1.23 per game) over the next nine seasons to hit 2,000.
Hitting the century mark is basically the floor for McDavid to this point in his career. He's failed to hit 100 points only twice: his 45-game rookie campaign and the 64-contest pandemic-shortened 2019-2020 season.
McDavid's career 82-game average is 125 points, according to Hockey Reference. He can bank 500 points over the next four seasons if he meets his average. It's very possible he'll be in the 1,600-point range by the end of 2028-29 at 33 years old. That would leave five more campaigns to collect roughly 400 points.
Crosby became only the 10th player to reach the 1,600-point plateau earlier this season at 37. The Penguins captain is the benchmark of consistency even into his elder years, recording seasons of 84, 93, and 94 points from age 34 onward. If he can be that productive so late in his career, so can McDavid.
McDavid never got caught up in the hoopla of his latest remarkable achievement, telling The Athletic's Daniel Nugent-Bowman that, "It was only a matter of time."
That could very well be the case for the next 1,000, too.