NHL Monday player props: 2 shot totals to target
There are just two games on tonight's slate. Unfortunately, I don't see much value on any side or total because the lines are about where they should be.
Thankfully, shot props exist! We're off to a rock-solid 6-1 start with shot totals, falling just one shy of perfect due to our lone loss to date.
We'll look to keep the good times going tonight as we comb through our best bets.
Victor Hedman over 2.5 shots (+110)
The Islanders are conceding a high volume of shots to start the season. In fact, no team is allowing shots at a higher rate during five-on-five play.
While New York has suffered through more defensive breakdowns than we generally see from the club, quantity has been more of an issue than quality. That's not surprising given that the Islanders' structure tends to take away looks from the middle of the ice and give opponents free rein from the blue line.
That's good news for defensemen willing to pull the trigger, and we have examples of that.
New York's last three games came against the Devils, Wild, and Jets. The top defender on each of those teams - Dougie Hamilton, Jared Spurgeon, and Josh Morrissey - all recorded at least four shots on goal during those contests.
Minute-munching defenders tend to benefit greatly when playing the Islanders. I expect that trend to continue with Victor Hedman, the Lightning's leader in five-on-five shot attempts.
Zach Werenski over 2.5 shots (+110)
The Red Wings are an improved team this year, but that stems more from their offensive play than their defense. At five-on-five, Detroit sits 29th in shots on goal allowed per 60 minutes.
Nobody should benefit more from this matchup than Zach Werenski. He leads the Blue Jackets in shots on goal and shot attempts. On average, he's hitting the net 3.5 times per game.
Despite Werenski averaging a full shot more than the total and playing against a Detroit team that bleeds shots, the odds imply he only has a 47.6% chance of hitting three.
There is a big edge to be had here at plus money.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.