NHL Thursday betting preview: Regression looms for Panthers, Caps
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Back-to-back 2-1 nights to begin the week have us in good standing heading into a busy Thursday.
Here's what I'm looking to bet on:
Predators (-105) @ Panthers (-115)
It's been a terrific start to the season for the Panthers (5-0-1), who have yet to lose in regulation. However, there's a lot less reason for optimism when you peel back the curtain.
Florida's schedule to date has been very kind, with two games each against the Blackhawks, Red Wings, and Blue Jackets. While the Panthers have done well to take advantage, they've only won once by more than a goal. They were just outplayed at five-on-five across two games against Detroit. Plus, the underlying numbers suggest this is a very average hockey team.
Regression is coming, and there's no better time for it than Thursday as Florida steps up a weight class. It might not appear as such on the surface, with the Predators sitting at 4-5-0, but they're overdue for an uptick in results. Nashville controlled nearly 56% of the expected goal share at five-on-five against the Lightning, whose talent won out in the end, and has managed a 55% share over its last seven games, five of which have come against the Lightning, Hurricanes, and Stars.
The Predators are much better than their record indicates, and we get them at a bargain Thursday. Just make sure Juuse Saros is starting, as Pekka Rinne has endured a miserable start to the season.
Pick: Predators (-105)
Stars (-130) @ Blue Jackets (+110)
The Blue Jackets battled back after a miserable start Tuesday against the Stars to make things respectable, and I'd expect the same response from them here. It's what Columbus has done all season.
John Tortorella has been excellent at making adjustments, with the Blue Jackets performing much better in the second contest of a two-game set than the first.
| Opponent | xGF% (Game 1) | xGF% (Game 2) |
|---|---|---|
| Predators | 46.53% | 64.05% |
| Red Wings | 36.95% | 53.83% |
| Lightning | 33.33% | 56.48% |
| Panthers | 29.92% | 48.55% |
| Blackhawks | 37.41% | 56.31% |
| Stars | 42.06% | TBD |
Because of the lopsided nature of Tuesday's 6-3 Stars win, and Dallas' 5-1-1 start to the year, we're getting excellent value here on a resilient Columbus squad on home ice.
Pick: Blue Jackets (+110)
Capitals (-110) @ Rangers (-110)
The Capitals have rolled with the punches this season, coping with key absences without any stumbles. They're second in points per game in the East Division. However, there's plenty of evidence to suggest their hot start isn't sustainable.
Washington sits 29th in the NHL in expected goal share (45.23%) at five-on-five. Only the Sharks and Kings have been worse. In fact, the Capitals have struggled across the board at five-on-five. They're 30th in Corsi For percentage and 28th in high-danger chances created per 60 minutes. Washington has benefitted from a 12.32% shooting percentage at five-on-five, well above the league average (just above 8%). It all shouts regression.
The Rangers, meanwhile, are due for positive regression, as they have a 6.67% shooting percentage. Plus, we benefit from New York's unlucky start by getting this team at even money. With the end of the Tony DeAngelo distraction, the Rangers can get back to what's really important: winning hockey games.
Pick: Rangers (-110)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, loves a juicy puck line, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.