Play-in preview: Flames, Jets collide in Western Canada clash
The 8-seed Calgary Flames will take on the ninth-seeded Winnipeg Jets in a Western Conference matchup that features a strong cast of talents on each side.
After having their blue line ravaged in the offseason, the Jets look to advance to the round of 16 for the third straight year, while the Flames seek to avenge their subpar campaign. There will be little room for error in a series that's too close to call.
Schedule
| Game | Date | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat. Aug. 1 | 10:30 p.m. |
| 2 | Mon. Aug. 3 | 2:30 p.m. |
| 3 | Tue. Aug 4 | 6:45 p.m. |
| 4 | Thu. Aug. 6 | TBD |
| 5 | Sat. Aug. 8 | TBD |
Tale of the tape
| Jets | Stat | Flames |
|---|---|---|
| 37-28-6 | Record | 36-27-7 |
| 3.00 (17) | Goals per game | 2.91 (20) |
| 2.83 (10) | Goals against | 3.06 (16) |
| 20.05 (15) | Power play % | 21.2 (12) |
| 77.6 (22) | Penalty kill % | 82.1 (8) |
| 48.55 (21) | 5-on-5 Corsi For % | 50.25 (15) |
| 8.05 (18) | 5-on-5 SH% | 7.64 (23) |
| .925 (9) | 5-on-5 SV % | .918 (15) |
Season series
The Jets and Flames met just once in 2019-20, and never indoors. The sides faced off at the Heritage Classic on a snowy October night in Regina, Saskatchewan, with Winnipeg storming back to win in overtime on a goal by Bryan Little. Nearly 10 months later, weighing the significance of that outcome to this best-of-five series feels like a lost cause.
Key players to watch
Johnny Gaudreau
After being held to one assist in the club's disappointing first-round loss against the Colorado Avalanche, Johnny Gaudreau was not himself this season. He was on pace for 68 points over 82 games, which would have represented a 31-point drop-off from 2018-19, and his expected goals for percentage of 49.02 at five-on-five was the lowest mark since his rookie campaign.
Gaudreau's game-breaking ability also seemed lacking throughout most of the campaign. The electric winger mustered just 14 multi-point efforts after recording 26 such outings last season.
If the Flames' perennial producer can recapture his form this summer, Calgary has an excellent chance of advancing to the round of 16 for the third time in four seasons.
Kyle Connor
While Mark Scheifele is arguably the Jets' most complete player, Connor has quietly developed into one of the game's premier goal-scorers. The 23-year-old sniper hit the 30-goal plateau for the third straight campaign with a career-best, team-leading 38 tallies this season while sharing the club lead with 73 points.
Connor doesn't rely on power-play time to make an impact, either, as his 28 even-strength goals are tied for fourth in the league. He's also got a knack for making timely contributions - he's tied for fifth with 12 game-winning goals since the beginning of the 2018-19 season. Connor's dominance could afford linemate Patrik Laine more space to operate, bolstering the Jets' attack.
Jets can win if ...
They stay out of the penalty box. Winnipeg has an excellent team save percentage at five-on-five, but its penalty kill is in the bottom third of the league. Calgary's star-studded power play, meanwhile, converted on 21.2% of its opportunities this season, but the Flames finished 20th in even-strength scoring.
Flames can win if ...
They get strong goaltending from either David Rittich or Cam Talbot. Calgary should be able to keep up offensively, but the Flames' duo in goal is going up against one of the world's best in Connor Hellebuyck. It will be awfully hard for Calgary to stay afloat if the team makes a habit of giving up weak goals - especially early in games.
X-factors
Connor Hellebuyck
Hellebuyck has been the Jets' X-factor all year, and they'll need the Vezina Trophy candidate to maintain his level of play despite the lengthy layoff. The club finds itself in the postseason despite ranking last in expected goals for percentage (43.57) and share of high-danger scoring chances (40.38) at five-on-five.
The 6-foot-4 puck-stopper faced more shots than any netminder while ranking second in minutes played. He also led the league with six shutouts and his goals saved above average (22.40) trailed only Tuukka Rask. Simply put, the Jets' season would likely be over if it wasn't for Hellebuyck's heroics.
Matthew Tkachuk
Whether it be through a big goal, hit, or even a fight, Tkachuk can swing the momentum of a game in multiple ways and takes pride in getting under opponents' skin. The 22-year-old winger was one of only three players to record over 60 points and 120 hits this season.
Tkachuk uses his bulky frame to win pucks in the dirty areas of the ice and is often rewarded for his tenacity. He ranked fifth in the league in penalties drawn this season and will play an important role in putting the Jets' subpar penalty kill to work. He also drives possession for the Flames, leading the team with a Corsi For rating of 54.3 at even strength.
(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick)