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In Krueger they trust: Have the white-hot Sabres finally turned the corner?

Bill Wippert / National Hockey League / Getty

BUFFALO - It hit Ralph Krueger earlier this week in a KeyBank Arena hallway.

As the first-year Sabres head coach reflected on the early days of his tenure in Buffalo, he felt a chill. Krueger's group had exploded out of the gate to start the 2019-20 season, gelling behind closed doors while collecting 15 of a possible 18 points. His body was telling him to soak it all in for a quick moment.

"If somebody asked me, 'After 10 games, what would I like to know?' It's that we have a right to be part of the (playoff) race. That'd be the first thing," Krueger said in a conversation Monday afternoon. "And I feel that for sure we do, especially after that (2-1-0 California) road trip. I get a little bit of goosebumps when I think about it because this is the first time I've actually said it to anybody."

Bill Wippert / Getty Images

The next day, the Sabres won again, with Jack Eichel scoring on a jam play in overtime. That 4-3 victory over San Jose improved Buffalo's record to 8-1-1, its points percentage to .850, and its goal differential to plus-14 - all tops among NHL teams. Eichel, meanwhile, is playing at an MVP level.

"Ralph is a little bit unique, which really works for this group," center and alternate captain Marcus Johansson said. "It's fun to play for him. He's honest, he's positive, he lifts guys up. Hockey players with confidence are a lot better than hockey players without confidence."

Undeniable impact

The Sabres own the NHL's longest active playoff drought - eight seasons - and no other team has lost more games this decade, so October's been a boon for the organization and its rabid fan base. The Eichel era, which started in October 2015 when he made the jump from college, has been characterized by horrible records, bad body language, and fired coaches.

Krueger, the Eichel era's third bench boss following Dan Bylsma and Phil Housley, has been a breath of fresh air. Previous Sabres teams didn't play with this kind of pace or fluidity. There's a collective swagger brewing.

Rob Marczynski / Getty Images

The coach and his staff have been preaching interchangeability between the forwards and defensemen, and the message isn't just aimed at certain players. "Five guys on offense, five guys on defense," is how Johansson described the mentality. "The big focus," winger Sam Reinhart added, "is trying to stay connected, with and without the puck. Supporting each other all the time."

This pack mentality has led to crisper breakouts, cleaner offensive-zone entries, and a ton of odd-man rushes. "Irrelevant of the score, irrelevant of where we play, we need to keep playing the same way," Krueger said of his system. "We stay on our toes. We keep playing offense. We don't sit back."

So far, the Sabres are averaging 3.7 goals per game, which ranks fourth in the league. Second-year captain Eichel, sniper Jeff Skinner, and power-play sensation Victor Olofsson have bagged six goals apiece, while 15 others have registered at least one point. Scoring four or more times in five of 10 games is an inspired start for a franchise that's finished bottom 10 in goals throughout the Eichel era.

It helps that Buffalo's forecheck is greatly improved this year, said Jake McCabe, one of six players remaining from the awful 2014-15 team that lost 59 games. "And as a defenseman," he added, "it's been a lot easier to keep my gap because our forwards are working to get back and pressuring the puck constantly." In short order, the Sabres are looking like a cohesive group.

Andy Devlin / Getty Images

The 60-year-old Krueger, a master communicator, has brought an optimist's vibe to the formerly downtrodden franchise. The guy literally wrote a book on leadership, and his glass is always three-quarters full. He's deeply thoughtful and willing to challenge institutional norms like the morning skate. Perhaps most important to his players, he's an inclusive, collaborative coach with an open-door policy.

"Our opinion matters to him, which is nice," center Casey Mittelstadt said. "Any time you're going (into his office or the video room), you know he's actually listening to you and actually taking what you have to say to heart."

The last time we saw Krueger behind a bench, he was leading Team Europe to a surprise second-place finish at the 2016 World Cup of Hockey. That came in the middle of an unusual turn as chairman of Southampton FC, an English Premier League soccer team. An uneventful 48-game stint with the Edmonton Oilers seven years ago was Krueger's only prior NHL head coaching experience, and the game has changed dramatically since 2012.

"I had a lot of time to think about if I was going to be a coach, what I would do strategically," he said. "To actually bring it to life, then, is a completely different experience."

Cautious optimism

On Tuesday, Sabres general manager Jason Botterill praised Krueger for the team's impressive improvement. He added that the four players acquired over the summer - forwards Johansson and Jimmy Vesey, and defensemen Colin Miller and Henri Jokiharju - have been a "really calming influence."

But with most of the roster returning, Krueger said last season's dramatic second-half slide still "hangs in the air." Ten straight wins had vaulted the Sabres into first place in the Eastern Conference during November, but they lost an incredible 41 of 57 remaining contests to miss the playoffs by 22 points.

At the time, pundits warned about falling head over heels for those Sabres since the winning streak featured six overtime or shootout victories. Puck luck had skewed the results, and the crash was swift and painful. Inevitably, fans may wonder if this year's scorching start is also a mirage.

In one sense, it's not. A plus-14 goal differential suggests dominance, not luck, and contributions have been coming from all four forward lines, three defense pairings, and two goalies. In another sense, the underlying even-strength data suggests the Sabres are playing with fire:

Sabres NHL rank
Shooting success (SH%) 10.5% 3rd
Expected goals (xGF%) 47.7% 20th
Scoring chances (SCF%) 48.1% 22nd
Shot attempts (CF%) 47.2% 25th
Source: NaturalStatTrick.com

Buffalo has capitalized on a high percentage of shots and is seeing red in three other important categories. That's not ideal. Nor is the team's early-season reliance on its power play (30.8%) and goaltending tandem. Journeyman starter Carter Hutton has posted a terrific .943 save percentage through six appearances. Is it illogical to expect so much of him, backup Linus Ullmark, and the power play over a full year?

"It's not lucky what's happening here," Krueger argued. "There is a method to what's going on and why we're where we're at right now."

Krueger used last week's 3-0 win in Los Angeles as an example. Outshot 47-24, Buffalo seemed to get away with murder. Yet the club mostly limited the Kings' second chances, Krueger said, allowing for the gritty victory.

"We're more of a possession team and pick our moments to shoot," he noted. "Others, like a Columbus, like an L.A., they're shooting teams. They shoot, they shoot, they shoot. So, the shot clock is a dangerous clock to track with us." Additionally, Krueger said his club leans on in-house data - namely scoring chances for and against - and that those numbers haven't been setting off alarms.

"You could argue about whether (percentages are) too high or it's too low, or whatever, but in the end, we feel like we're realistically capable of being part of the race," he said.

Harry How / Getty Images

It's hard to disagree with Krueger because the Sabres are passing the eye test with flying colors. Mittelstadt and Vesey are playing some of the best hockey of their careers, much-maligned defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen is happy with his suitable role on a well-balanced blue line, the Johansson-Skinner combo has made the second unit more dangerous, and both Eichel and Rasmus Dahlin - the organization's tentpole stars - are leading the charge on and off the ice.

The Sabres' 50th season is young, and their record could look wildly different in a month. Regardless, it feels like the tide is turning. The organization has found its leader.

"The most pleasing (development) is how much these players in Buffalo have embraced the plan that we as coaches drew up," Krueger said, "and the pathway that we've drawn up."

John Matisz is theScore's national hockey writer.

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