NFL division odds: A look at all 8 races with 4 weeks remaining
With four weeks remaining in the regular season, divisional races across the NFL are incredibly tight. No division is close to being decided, and no leader holds more than two wins over their next closest competitor.
The wide-open playoff picture heightens the importance of every game in the season's final few weeks.
Let's look at every NFL division and each team's path to claiming a division crown.
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AFC East
| Team (Record) | Div. Odds (Implied Prob.) | Schedule |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots (11-2) | -500 (83.3%) | vs. BUF @ BAL @ NYJ vs. MIA |
| Bills (9-4) | +400 (20%) | @ NE @ CLE vs. PHI vs. NYJ |
The Patriots host the Bills in Week 14, and the AFC East is theirs if they win. New England's -500 odds imply an 83.3% chance of it winning the division, meaning the Pats will likely stay on top even if it drops a game to Buffalo. The Bills likely need to run the table to give themselves a chance at the division crown, especially with the Jets and Dolphins remaining on the Patriots' schedule.
AFC North
| Team (Record) | Div. Odds (Implied Prob.) | Schedule |
|---|---|---|
| Steelers (7-6) | -165 (62.3%) | vs. MIA @ DET @ CLE vs. BAL |
| Ravens (6-7) | +175 (36.4%) | @ CIN vs. NE @ GB @ PIT |
| Bengals (4-9) | +1200 (7.7%) | vs. BAL @ MIA vs. ARI vs. CLE |
The Steelers are in the driver's seat, but the AFC North could very well come down to their Week 18 game against the Ravens. Pittsburgh is expected to be favored in two of its remaining contests (versus Miami and at Cleveland). Meanwhile, Baltimore will likely be the underdog in three of its four remaining matchups, with the outing at Cincinnati likely the only one that favors the team. Given how the Ravens have been playing lately, the Steelers should hang on to the division lead.
The Bengals need a miracle to win the AFC North. They'll have to win out while getting a ton of help from the Steelers' and Ravens' opponents.
AFC South
| Team (Record) | Div. Odds (Implied Prob.) | Schedule |
|---|---|---|
| Jaguars (9-4) | -175 (63.6%) | vs. NYJ @ DEN @ IND vs. TEN |
| Texans (8-5) | +160 (38.5%) | vs. ARI vs. LV @ LAC vs. IND |
| Colts (8-5) | +2000 (4.8%) | @ SEA vs. SF vs. JAX @ HOU |
The Jaguars picked up a huge divisional win over the Colts in Week 14, grabbing the top spot in the AFC South with a relatively easy schedule remaining. The Colts also lost Daniel Jones for the season, a setback reflected in their +2000 odds to win the division despite their 8-5 record.
The Jaguars will be favored in three of their remaining games (Jets, Colts, and Titans), as will the Texans (Cardinals, Raiders, and Colts). Assuming both win those contests, the AFC South will come down to the Jaguars' trip to Denver and the Texans' road game against the Chargers.
AFC West
| Team (Record) | Div. Odds (Implied Prob.) | Schedule |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos (11-2) | -700 (87.5%) | vs. GB vs. JAX @ KC vs. LAC |
| Chargers (9-4) | +475 (17.4%) | @ KC @ DAL vs. HOU @ DEN |
The Chiefs' nine-year reign as the division champ is over. They can't catch the 11-2 Broncos, who are -700 favorites to win their first AFC West title since 2015. The Chargers will have a tough time catching Denver, with no help coming from the schedule. To have any hope, the Chargers likely need to go 4-0 against a lineup of formidable opponents to close the year. Meanwhile, Denver plays three home games and should be able to pick up a couple of victories to claim the division.
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NFC East
| Team (Record) | Div. Odds (Implied Prob.) | Schedule |
|---|---|---|
| Eagles (8-5) | -900 (90%) | vs. LV @ WSH @ BUF vs. WSH |
| Cowboys (6-6-1) | +650 (13.3%) | vs. MIN vs. LAC @ WSH @ NYG |
Although the Eagles kept the Cowboys' division hopes alive by losing to the Chargers on Monday Night Football, Dallas remains a long shot to storm back.
Philadelphia doesn't look good, but at least it has a favorable remaining schedule, with matchups against the Raiders and the Commanders twice. The Eagles have to win two of those and hope the Cowboys don't run the table.
NFC North
| Team (Record) | Div. Odds (Implied Prob.) | Schedule |
|---|---|---|
| Packers (9-3-1) | -225 (69.2%) | @ DEN @ CHI vs. BAL @ MIN |
| Bears (9-4) | +275 (26.7%) | vs. CLE vs. GB @ SF vs. DET |
| Lions (8-5) | +750 (11.8%) | @ LAR vs. PIT @ MIN @ CHI |
With three teams in the mix, the NFC North may be the most intriguing race. The Bears gave up the division lead when they lost to the Packers in Week 13, but they're still alive with another meeting against Green Bay on the schedule.
The Packers have a 69.2% implied probability to win the NFC North for the first time since 2021. However, they still have three road contests left, including a tough trip to Denver in Week 14. The Bears could easily be back on top this time next week.
While the Lions have an outside shot to steal the division, they'll likely need to win out to come out on top. However, Detroit's odds would drastically increase if it gets past the Rams as a 5.5-point underdog in Week 15.
NFC South
| Team (Record) | Div. Odds (Implied Prob.) | Schedule |
|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers (7-6) | -300 (75%) | vs. ATL @ CAR @ MIA vs. CAR |
| Panthers (7-6) | +225 (30.8%) | @ NO vs. TB vs. SEA @ TB |
The NFC South will come down to the final two games between the Buccaneers and Panthers, who have yet to play each other this season. If either team wins both contests, the division is theirs. However, if they split, the Bucs get the advantage due to an easier remaining two opponents.
The Panthers have Seattle left to play, which could be the nail in their coffin. Whoever earns this division title will likely be the 4-seed in the NFC and have to play either the Seahawks or Rams at home in the wild-card round.
NFC West
| Team (Record) | Div. Odds (Implied Prob.) | Schedule |
|---|---|---|
| Rams (10-3) | -140 (58.3%) | vs. DET @ SEA @ ATL vs. ARI |
| Seahawks (10-3) | +175 (36.4%) | vs. IND vs. LAR @ CAR @ SF |
| 49ers (9-4) | +700 (12.5%) | vs. TEN @ IND vs. CHI vs. SEA |
The Rams and Seahawks are the top Super Bowl favorites at +400 and +750, respectively, on theScore Bet, so it's a shame one of them won't get a home game in the opening week of the playoffs.
The Rams are a slight favorite to win the NFC West title, with two easier matchups against the Falcons and Cardinals to close the year. However, the Seahawks' game against the Colts just became a lot more winnable with Jones out. Seattle could easily reach 13 wins without needing to beat the L.A. in Week 16.
This will be an electric divisional race with major NFC playoff implications at stake, one in which even the 49ers have a chance to win.
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