NFL Week 10 picks: Can Bucs stop Pats' run in battle of contenders?
I'm filling in for Eric on our Week 10 picks column. He's been doing well with his five-star plays, but if my recent NFL props bets and college football record are any indication, I should be OK in relief.
As always, we'll give our against-the-spread picks for every game, outlining our confidence level for each. Let's dive in.
π Check out all of the Week 10 lines available on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here
Jump to: Late slate
π Pick: Falcons +6.5
The Falcons desperately need a win following three straight losses. Meanwhile, the Colts are looking to bounce back after struggling offensively for the first time in well over a month in a loss to the Steelers. Daniel Jones threw three picks in the contest, while Jonathan Taylor rushed for only 45 yards on 14 carries. Allowing the fewest passing yards per game and the fourth-fewest total yards, Atlanta's defense could have a similar impact on the Colts' offense.
On the other side, the Falcons should have opportunities to exploit Indianapolis' porous secondary. The Colts traded for Sauce Gardner to address their shortcomings, but he won't change much in his first game.
Confidence level: β β βββ
π Pick: Giants +4.5
The Giants have allowed at least 33 points in three consecutive losses, while the Bears have won five of their last six. Still, Chicago never seems to make things easy. Although the Bears have had success covering the spread this season, this is a spot to pivot and take New York. The Giants haven't quit, and their offense has played well as Jaxson Dart continues to develop. Many matchup metrics wouldn't back the Giants, which is why it's a one-star play, but New York is the right choice.
Confidence level: β ββββ
π Pick: Ravens -4.5
Don't be fooled by the Vikings' impressive win over the Lions. J.J. McCarthy has been a mistake-prone quarterback through three starts, throwing as many interceptions as touchdowns this season and never surpassing 160 yards in a contest. Minnesota wins despite McCarthy, not because of him.
The Ravens are healthier and gained extra rest after a dominating Thursday Night Football win over the Dolphins in Lamar Jackson's return. The perennial MVP candidate's presence turns Baltimore into a contender. Jackson should tear apart the Vikings' below-average defense.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Saints +5.5
This is a letdown spot for the Panthers coming back home after scoring their biggest win of the season against the Packers. Carolina has been wildly inconsistent, barely beating the Jets, scoring nine points in a loss against the Bills, and then defeating one of the NFC's best teams. The Saints have been consistently bad, but Tyler Shough could surprise people in a divisional showdown. Bank on New Orleans keeping it close.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Bills -9.5
The Dolphins have the rest advantage, while the Bills are traveling to Miami after an emotional win over the Chiefs. Usually, those two factors would lead me to pick the Dolphins. However, it's difficult to side with a squad that just fired its general manager and traded away one of its best defensive players.
Miami is a dumpster fire and significantly worse than Buffalo at virtually every positional group. The Bills won by only 10 points in their first matchup in September, but the rematch should be much uglier for the Dolphins.
Confidence level: β β βββ
π Pick: Browns -2.5
Throw a parade! The New York Jets won a football game. While that speaks more to the Bengals' pathetic defense, I'm not sure we'll type that sentence again this season. After the Jets won their first game, they traded away defensive centerpieces Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams.
With New York now in full tank mode, it's hard to bet on an organization that quit on the season and accepted its fate. Even though the Browns aren't much better, they did handily defeat the Dolphins in October and have shown fight throughout the year. The Jets' offense won't have the same success it did last week against the Browns' defense, which allows the second-fewest yards per game.
Confidence level: β β β ββ
π Pick: Texans +1.5
C.J. Stroud is out with a concussion, but the Texans' recent resurgence has been more about the NFL's best scoring defense than the squad's offense.
The Jaguars are trending in the opposite direction since their upset win over the Chiefs, losing two of their last three games and needing overtime to defeat the lowly Raiders. But there's a reason Houston is only a 1.5-point underdog despite Stroud's absence. The Texans have been an elite pass coverage team, which should make it difficult for Trevor Lawrence to find success.
Confidence level: β β β ββ
π Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
Though the Patriots have won six straight, they barely escaped the Falcons last week. Interceptions and fumbles have been an issue for Drake Maye in recent weeks, while the Bucs hold the NFL's fourth-best turnover differential.
Tampa also has the rest advantage coming off a bye. In a cross-conference matchup between two of the league's best clubs, the home team with the more experienced quarterback deserves the edge. New England has been an impressive story, but aside from the win over the Bills, the Pats have benefited from an absurdly easy schedule. The Bucs are the more serious contender of the two.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Check out all of the Week 10 lines available on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here
π Pick: Cardinals +6.5
I'm buying what we saw from the Cardinals on Monday Night Football, regardless of the opponent. Additionally, Arizona is 4-0 against the spread on the road this season.
The Seahawks maintain a great running defense, but their passing defense isn't nearly as effective. Jacoby Brissett has been surprisingly accurate since stepping into a starting role, throwing for over 260 yards in all three games and posting a passer rating of at least 110 in his last two. Furthermore, the Cardinals prioritized getting Marvin Harrison Jr. touches against the Cowboys, a strategy that should carry over to Seattle.
Confidence level: β β βββ
π Pick: Rams -4.5
The 49ers' defense is decimated, and the injury bug has carried over to the offense. Even if you believe the drop-off between Brock Purdy and Mac Jones is minor, San Francisco will likely have a backup quarterback under center against an elite pass rush. On the other side, Matt Stafford is one of the most accurate signal-callers in the league and should carve up a wounded defense, with Los Angeles averaging nearly 29 points over its last three games.
The Rams haven't lost since their Oct. 2 defeat to the 49ers, so they'll be out for revenge with a close divisional race on the line. They're also 6-2 against the spread this season.
Confidence level: β β β ββ
π Pick: Lions -8.5
This is both a bounce-back and a revenge spot for the Lions. Although Detroit delivered an uncharacteristic performance in a divisional loss to the Vikings last week, it remains an elite team with the league's second-highest scoring offense. Washington surrenders the fourth-most passing yards per game, so Jared Goff and Co. should torch them.
With Jayden Daniels under center, the Commanders were a mess and had a bottom-tier passing attack. Without him, Washington's offense doesn't stand a chance. It has lost four straight games, and its season is slipping away as Daniels is out indefinitely with an elbow injury.
Plus, the Lions haven't forgotten about the Commanders upsetting them in the divisional round last January. That should provide even more motivation for Detroit.
Confidence level: β β β β β
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