Super Bowl MVP odds: 3 value bets ahead of conference title games
With only four teams left in title contention, the Super Bowl MVP oddsboard has thinned considerably from when it opened ahead of the postseason. There are still plenty of values in the market, though, with far less risk than if you'd placed a bet weeks ago.
Here are the current odds to win the award at Barstool Sportsbook, with our three favorite values to bet ahead of this weekend:
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs (+160)
This may seem like the most obvious choice on the board, and also the riskiest at such a short price. Make no mistake: if you like the Chiefs' chances of winning it all, this is the best way to bet them.
Quarterbacks have won four of the last five Super Bowl MVPs and nine of the last 12, including Mahomes' own award-winning performance in 2020. He probably shouldn't have won it - Mahomes threw two interceptions and finished with a 78.6 passer rating - but he earned the nod anyway because of the Kansas City passer's outsized role in his team's title run.
There's no reason to expect a different result this time around, especially with how well Mahomes is playing. The fifth-year star has thrown for 782 yards and eight touchdowns on a 75.9% completion percentage in two postseason games after one of the best playoff performances we've ever seen Sunday. He's got a chance to pad those stats this week against a Bengals pass defense that ranked among the worst in the regular season.
That context matters with this award. Tom Brady won it last year despite a pedestrian stat line because of his play leading up to the big game. The same happened with Mahomes the year before. The Chiefs are +125 to win it all, which makes this an easy bet to make if you can stomach the short price.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams (+800)
OK, so I know I said quarterbacks almost always win this award, even when they don't deserve it. That's largely true. But those rules needn't apply for someone like Kupp, who made legitimate noise to win the regular-season MVP - which is unprecedented for a wide receiver - and has maintained his elite play in the postseason.
The Rams' star wideout hauled in nine catches for 183 yards Sunday, including arguably the two most important plays for Los Angeles in that wild win over the Buccaneers. He could be due for a big showing this week, too, as he's totaled 18 catches for 240 yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers this season.
Kupp has been the clear MVP for L.A. all season, so he may actually get his due from voters if he posts another ridiculous stat line in the Super Bowl - much like Julian Edelman (141 yards) did to win this award in 2019. At these odds, it's well worth a shot on Kupp to follow suit.
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers (+1600)
I don't think I need to explain this one to you if you've watched the 49ers at any point this postseason. Samuel has been the engine for this offense and was a one-man wrecking crew Saturday when he mustered 142 all-purpose yards and was the focal point on San Francisco's only two drives that ended in points.
This is nothing new for Samuel, who has 1,963 yards and 15 touchdowns from scrimmage this season and leads his team in yards per reception (18.2) and yards per rush (6.2) among active players. He's also recorded at least 95 receiving yards in each of his last three games against the Rams, in addition to a pair of rushing touchdowns this season against his division rivals.
There are two major drawbacks to this bet: Samuel hurt his ankle Saturday, though he finished the game and shouldn't miss any time. The 49ers are also underdogs to advance Sunday. If Samuel can will his side to a win this week, he'll almost certainly be the fulcrum of San Francisco's title game plan.