Bills-Saints player props: Jazzing up the Thanksgiving nightcap
The late Thanksgiving game kicks off any minute, and the Saints' crowd is fired up. But you're sluggish, full of turkey and pie, and perhaps some casual beverages. You need something to pick you up for the holiday football nightcap, and there's only one thing you can do: Crank some jazz, hear the horns, and feel alive again. The least we can do here is turn to some New Orleans classics as we find bets to help us through the final Thanksgiving game.
"Time Is On My Side"
The Saints' only hope is long, elaborate drives, but who is going to accomplish that for them with so many injuries? As we await more information on who might be available on their side of the football, let's back a reliable weapon in a prime-time spot.
Stefon Diggs will likely see a lot of Marshon Lattimore. While it's easy to think that might hurt the Bills' No. 1 target, it's actually a worse matchup for Lattimore, who does better work against bigger wide receivers. Diggs can use his quickness and precise route running to play a tune against the Saints' top corner. So we'll take advantage of what might be a short number thanks to New Orleans' defensive reputation.
Pick: Stefon Diggs over 79.5 receiving yards
A TD that's definitely going to happen
Normally we look for an anytime touchdown bet that is around even money because the premise is to pick one of the short-priced players and confidently say that they'll definitely score. This week, we're going to let the Bills' coaching staff plant that flag for us.
After the Saints' game last week against the Eagles - where quarterback Jalen Hurts ran for three touchdowns - there's no way the Bills don't use Josh Allen more in the run game. Especially since he's only had two carries in each of the last two games.
Pick: Josh Allen anytime touchdown (+160)
A TD that won't happen ... but maybe it does
Normally, this is a place to dig "Into The Deep" for a massive long shot, and Lil'Jordan Humphrey is sitting at 20-1 to score a touchdown after returning last week from injury to play 25% of the offensive snaps. Despite his name, he's a big target in the red zone for a team that seems to have turned away from Juwan Johnson on the rare occasion "When The Saints Go Marching In" opponents' territory.
However, I have a more middle-of-the-road bet that I like better.
Here's a look at the Bills' recent snap distribution at the running back position:
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Matt Breida came off the practice squad in Week 10 looking fresh, scored a touchdown, and racked up 79 yards on eight carries in the last two games. Meanwhile, Zack Moss and Devin Singletary have combined for 92 yards on 20 carries and appear vulnerable to lose their roles in the offense. Perhaps they'll mutter to themselves, "Ain't That A Shame" on the sideline.
Their carries could also decrease because the Bills' coaching staff has said that Allen needs to carry the ball more. Breida has looked better than both of them in the passing game as well, so he should get more looks as Buffalo goes "Walking To New Orleans." And if he scores? Well, "What A Wonderful World" that would be.
Pick: Matt Breida anytime touchdown (+550)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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