Super Bowl MVP best bets: Patrick Mahomes or the field?
One of the most popular betting markets ahead of this year's Super Bowl LV matchup between the Chiefs (-3.5) and Buccaneers is for the MVP award - which is quickly becoming a one-man race.
Patrick Mahomes won it a year ago despite a subpar game by his standards, and he's the prohibitive favorite (-105) to win it again this season. He and Tom Brady (+200) are the only players priced shorter than 10-1, which means it'll take quite the script for any long shot to win. Do we like the favorites, or are we taking a swing on a miracle award winner?
Here are the odds to win Super Bowl LV MVP (100-1 or shorter) and our best bets to take home the award.
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | -105 |
| Tom Brady | +200 |
| Tyreek Hill | +1400 |
| Travis Kelce | +1500 |
| Leonard Fournette | +3000 |
| Chris Godwin | +3400 |
| Mike Evans | +3400 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | +3700 |
| Devin White | +5000 |
| Shaquil Barrett | +5000 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | +5000 |
| Antonio Brown | +5500 |
| Ronald Jones | +5500 |
| Darrel Williams | +5500 |
| Jason Pierre-Paul | +8000 |
| Chris Jones | +8500 |
| Rob Gronkowski | +8500 |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | +10000 |
| Mecole Hardman | +10000 |
| Sammy Watkins | +10000 |
| Willie Gay | +10000 |
Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers (+200)
I have no clue why Buccaneers moneyline bettors would short themselves a few cents; you're better off betting Brady to win the MVP.
If Tampa Bay wins, it'll be because of the GOAT. Brady's had at least 40 passing attempts in five of his last six Super Bowl appearances and has won the award in four of his six victories.
Head coach Bruce Arians recently admitted that he'll oftentimes sit back and let Brady go to work. I don't think the team's success over the last seven games - zero losses and six contests with 30-plus points - is a coincidence. This is Brady vs. Mahomes - there's no other way around it.
- Alex Kolodziej
Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs (+1400)
I like the Chiefs to repeat as Super Bowl champions, so I'm halving the field. I also have to look past Mahomes, who doesn't offer any value at his price. No running back has won the award since 1997, so a wide receiver or defensive player should win Super Bowl MVP if it's not Mahomes. But the defenses won't dominate this game, which means I'm looking at Kansas City's pass-catchers.
Volume is key, and I'd expect there to be a ton of it for Hill on Sunday against a Buccaneers team that's impossible to run on. The Chiefs will be creative with how they get the ball into the hands of the game's most explosive player, giving him plenty of touches near or behind the line of scrimmage in the absence of a traditional run game.
Those plays will force Tampa Bay's secondary - already an aggressive group - to stay honest, meaning the deep shots will also be there for Hill, who had touchdowns of 20, 44, and 75 yards against the Buccaneers earlier this season. Expecting a repeat of Week 12 is a lot to ask, but the volume will be there for a player who's a threat to take it the distance every time he touches the ball.
Don't be shocked if we see Hill returning a kick or three in the second half, either, if the game is close. He's got five return touchdowns to his name in his already illustrious career.
- Alex Moretto
Devin White, LB, Buccaneers (+5000)
The more I study this game, the more I can't shake the feeling that White will have his name written all over it. If the Buccaneers employ a heavy dose of two-high safety - which they did in Week 12 after Hill's first-quarter outburst - that'll leave White with a huge responsibility to help patrol the middle of the field.
The second-year linebacker has struggled in coverage at times, but he's stepped up in a huge way this postseason, recording his first interception of the year against the Saints and allowing 5.3 yards per target against the pass-happy Packers. He's also a savant in the run game and as a pass-rusher - he finished fifth in tackles (140) and 14th in sacks (9) in 15 regular-season games, the only player to rank in the top 30 in each.
Don't let the short prices at the top deter you from chasing long-shot values. Remember when Cam Newton and Peyton Manning were the obvious MVP choices in 2016? Instead, Von Miller won it after recording six tackles, 2.5 sacks, and two forced fumbles for the Broncos. What about Malcolm Smith, who earned MVP honors over Manning and Russell Wilson after scoring a touchdown for the Seahawks in 2014?
We've seen linebackers win in years where a quarterback seemed inevitable. At 50-1, I love White's chances of being that player this time around.
- C Jackson Cowart