Best bets for the NFL's divisional round

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After a thrilling (and at times, shocking) wild-card round, only eight teams remain in the NFL playoffs. A pair of teams are massive favorites in the divisional round this week, while two games are priced as nail-biters.

Here's how we're betting the games.

Alex Kolodziej

Chiefs team total over 34.5 vs. Browns

I love the matchup for the reigning Super Bowl champions in their first meaningful game. The Chiefs aren't a top-five scoring offense heading into the divisional round, but they'll dismantle the Browns' defense. Cleveland was handed the easiest slate of opposing offenses in the regular season and still finished No. 25 in both DVOA pass defense and total DVOA.

Kansas City's Andy Reid normally kills it after a bye week, going 21-10 against the spread after an extra week of preparation. He and Patrick Mahomes - along with a rested supporting cast - will execute their offensive game plan at home and with fans.

Alex Moretto

Bills -2.5 vs. Ravens

The Bills probably should have lost last week. The Colts missed a field goal, dropped a touchdown on fourth-and-goal, and jumped offside and dropped an interception to extend a Buffalo touchdown drive. The Bills also uncharacteristically struggled on third down, converting just two of nine attempts.

Despite having one of their least efficient offensive games of the season, the Bills still managed to score 27 points. This offense is potent and a mismatch against the Ravens' defense. That's not to discredit Baltimore's rushing attack or run defense, but there were three driving forces behind the Ravens' victory last week that were beyond their control: the Titans' refusal to adapt from their struggling running game, Mike Vrabel's puzzling coaching decisions, and Ryan Tannehill's disappointing play.

The Titans found success when they threw the ball on early downs, averaging 0.40 EPA per play. But their refusal to keep doing so proved to be their demise. That won't be the case Saturday with a Bills team that threw the ball most often on early downs this season under Brian Daboll. Buffalo will also be without Zack Moss, who has led the team in carries since the start of November.

It's hard to envision the Ravens generating enough stops to limit Buffalo's offense, which has been scoring at will. On the other side of the ball, what the Titans did do was develop something of a blueprint for slowing Baltimore's attack, with slot cornerback Desmond King spying Lamar Jackson and the secondary clogging the middle of the field, resulting in Jackson being sacked five times. That's a dangerous recipe for Baltimore, considering Jackson will have to drop back and throw more than he'd like in order to keep pace with the Bills' attack.

We're getting this line at quite the discount here as a result of Buffalo's unconvincing display a week ago coupled with the Ravens' second-half dominance against Tennessee. Don't let recency bias sway you.

C Jackson Cowart

Rams +7 at Packers

I loved the Packers coming into the postseason, and against any other team, I might be inclined to bet them. But this is a brutal matchup for Green Bay against a flawed but dangerous Rams squad.

Los Angeles sacked Russell Wilson five times last week and ranked second in the regular season with 53 sacks despite a below-average blitz rate. Much of that is thanks to first-year defensive coordinator Brandon Staley, whose creative pass-rushing scheme provides the foundation for the Rams' top-ranked defense.

The best way to beat Aaron Rodgers has historically been to generate pressure without blitzing (see: 2019 49ers) and keep him off the field with a strong running game. That should be no trouble for L.A., which let Cam Akers loose for 131 yards last week and will need to lean on its rushing attack with an injured quarterback in near-freezing temperatures.

The Packers' run defense has long been an Achilles' heel, and their offensive line has struggled against unorthodox pass rushes. All told, this is simply the worst matchup Green Bay could have asked for in the divisional round; catching a touchdown on the Rams is merely a bonus.