Browns at Steelers betting preview: Can Cleveland snap losing spells?
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
It's been over 17 years since the Browns last tasted victory in Pittsburgh and 26 years since they last won a playoff contest. Oddsmakers doubt their ability to break either streak against the Steelers (-6, 47), who have faltered down the stretch but could catch a break against an undermanned Cleveland squad.
Trends and results
The Browns last made the playoffs in 2002 when they, fittingly, lost as road underdogs to the Steelers. Since then, they've struggled mightily to win at Heinz Field, losing in each of their last 17 tries with a 6-11 record against the spread over that stretch.
Cleveland was an underdog in 16 of those 17 defeats and has gone 13-21 ATS in its last 34 games as a road 'dog, losing all but four of those contests straight up. It's also gone 7-29 ATS in that same time period when catching at least six points, averaging just 13.4 points per game with an average scoring margin of -15.
Conversely, the Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven as home chalk and have covered five of their last seven postseason games at home. They're also a remarkable 12-1 to the over in home playoff contests since 2002, surpassing the total by an average of 13.7 points.
These two teams played last week when the Browns narrowly beat the Steelers' B-squad as massive favorites. That doesn't bode well for Cleveland. The last six clubs to win in Week 17 and face that same opponent a week later went 2-4 ATS/SU, and the four losing teams allowed an average of 40.5 points per game.
X-factor
Browns' offensive line vs. Steelers' front seven
This section could easily be about the Browns' COVID-19 outbreak, which has cost the team practice time and will keep head coach Kevin Stefanski and at least four players out for Sunday's game. Until we know the full extent of that, though, we'll go with another crucial storyline for this weekend - the Steelers' elite pass rush against Cleveland's top-graded offensive line.
Only two teams blitzed at a higher rate this year than the Steelers, who led the NFL in pressure rate (32.3%) by a wide margin and also ranked first in sacks (56) and QB knockdown rate (11.6%). They recorded four sacks in each of their two games against the Browns, who allowed just 1.3 sacks on average in their other 14 outings. That would rank second-best in the NFL over a full season.
Baker Mayfield has been mostly kept clean this year but has struggled throughout his career against pressure. This season, he was tied for the NFL lead in throwaways while pressured (26) and ranked near the bottom in passer rating (47.7) and completion percentage (43.7%) while under duress.
The third-year signal-caller had his worst game of the season against the Steelers in Week 6 when he threw two interceptions in two-and-a-half quarters before sitting out the rest of the game due to injury. Without his coach on the sidelines helping with in-game adjustments, it could be a long day for Mayfield.
Best bet
Steelers -6
Before the Browns' COVID-19 outbreak changed the shape of Sunday's contest, I was already leaning toward the Steelers as short favorites thanks to their debilitating pass rush and general dominance of Cleveland in recent years.
With Stefanski coaching from home, it's even harder to imagine the Browns being fully prepared for what Mike Tomlin and Co. will throw their way. The best plan to attack Cleveland is to mitigate its run game and force Mayfield into uncomfortable spots, which the Steelers are well-equipped to do Sunday.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.