Ravens at Titans betting preview: Will Baltimore avenge last year's loss?
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The lone rematch from last postseason takes place in Tennessee, where the Ravens (-3.5, 55) are short favorites to avenge a stunning playoff loss to the Titans as massive chalk.
Can Derrick Henry spark another upset this year, or will Lamar Jackson and Co. flip the script in Round 2?
Trends and results
Tennessee beat Baltimore last year as a 9.5-point underdog, abruptly ending the Ravens' impressive run against the spread. Will it happen again? Baltimore enters this clash on a six-game ATS win streak - with the team's last loss coming in Week 11 against the Titans - and has gone 23-7-1 ATS on the road since 2017.
The Ravens have also impressed in spots like this, covering five straight as favorites and nine consecutive contests on the road against opponents that entered with a winning record. They've also covered during seven of their last nine playoff games, though Jackson is 0-2 ATS and has led his team to a combined 29 points in those losses to the Chargers and Titans.
On the other side, Tennessee is 2-1 ATS in the postseason under Mike Vrabel, with the club covering 57.1% of its games since Ryan Tannehill assumed the starting quarterback role in mid-2019. The Titans are also 20-6-3 to the over in Tannehill's 29 starts, while the Ravens are 4-2 to the over during their last six chalk spots, averaging 35 points per game throughout that stretch.
X-factor
Lamar Jackson vs. Titans' defense
It'd be easy to say Henry is the X-factor. After all, he carried the Titans to a win a year ago while running for 195 yards. Still, the Ravens would have won that playoff game if Tennessee's stellar defensive game plan didn't stifle Jackson.
Since then, Tennessee's defensive coordinator Dean Pees has retired, and the Titans' defense plummeted to 29th in DVOA as a result. They held the Ravens to 24 points in a Week 11 overtime victory, though that was before Baltimore came alive over the final five weeks, with its dominant rushing attack rising up.
The Ravens' offense is more spread out than a year ago, and Jackson has taken advantage while posting a combined 1,239 yards and 15 touchdowns to just four turnovers over the last five weeks. Conversely, the Titans' defense is less effective at pressuring the quarterback or containing speed off the edge.
Can Jackson rewrite his playoff reputation against the team that sullied it?
Best bet
Ravens -3.5
The Ravens were the better squad when these two teams met in the 2020 divisional round. It didn't matter, as a brilliant overall game plan led Tennessee to an easy victory. I don't expect John Harbaugh - who's riding a 10-3-1 ATS run against teams that beat him the previous two times - to get outcoached in this one.
If he doesn't, his roster is well equipped to outmatch Tennessee. The Ravens' defense quietly ranks No. 1 in opposing points per play, while their offense ranks fifth in points scored per play and has dialed up its run game to 2019 levels. Even a Herculean effort from Henry may not be enough for the underdogs this time around.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.