Rams at Seahawks betting preview: Can L.A. survive QB woes?
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And so they meet again. After splitting their regular-season series, the Seahawks (-4.5, 42.5) and Rams will face off for a third time under slightly different circumstances. Los Angeles' starting quarterback, Jared Goff, is unlikely to suit up Saturday, leaving backup John Wolford as the likely playoff starter in what would be only his second career appearance. Is that worth laying the points with Seattle?
Trends and results
One of the NFL's best rivalries has also been one of the most unpredictable in recent years. Since the Seahawks drafted Russell Wilson in 2012, 12 of these teams' 18 meetings have been decided by one possession, with six coming within five points.
The underdog is 11-5 ATS in those games (two were pick 'em), while the home team has gone 13-5 ATS. And while Seattle has a 4-3 ATS mark in its last seven against Los Angeles, it's also 2-5 straight up in those seven meetings with a -53 point differential.
This still isn't a great spot for the Rams, who have lost two of three ATS, including an 11-point defeat to the Seahawks as road underdogs in Week 16. Seattle is 6-2 ATS as home chalk this year and has hit 56.7% of the time in that spot with Wilson under center.
Will either offense break through on Saturday? After setting the league ablaze in their first eight games, the Seahawks have gone under in seven of their last eight, averaging 23.1 points over that stretch and holding opponents to 16 points per contest. Conversely, the Rams are riding an 11-2 under run behind the NFL's top scoring defense (18.5 points per game).
X-factor
John Wolford vs. Seahawks defense
This is certainly the key to Saturday's game, and it's also why the Seahawks enter this matchup as clear favorites.
L.A. was a 2.5-point favorite the first time these teams met in Week 10 and was a 1-point road 'dog just two weeks ago. Is this adjustment warranted? Wolford wasn't perfect Sunday but still managed the game well and became the only quarterback in NFL history to throw for 200 yards and rush for 50 yards in his first career appearance.
The former AAF star missed some throws but also executed on some deep looks that Goff has simply been missing this year. His mobility is also a plus against Seattle, which has relied on pressure to spark its midseason defensive turnaround.
Best bet
Under 42.5
This number is strikingly low for two teams that have proved capable of lighting up the scoreboard. I'm taking the under, anyway. Wolford showed some promise in Week 17, but I don't expect Sean McVay to test his young quarterback - or a recovering Goff - against the Seahawks' defense, which brings pressure from all three levels.
Conversely, the Rams have arguably the NFL's best defense and forced Wilson into possibly his worst performance of the season in Week 10 when he threw two picks with no touchdowns. Expect both teams to lean on the run game Saturday, which bodes well for the underdogs and the under.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.