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The Jets won't get to draft Trevor Lawrence. Now what?

Mitchell Leff / Getty Images Sport / Getty

This scenario seemed easy enough, even for the New York Jets. To secure the right to draft Clemson's Trevor Lawrence, a rare generational quarterback prospect, all the Jets had to do was keep losing. Hell, the Jets could do that. They've been losing for a long time! They're basically experts at losing. Total pros.

The Jets got off to a roaring start, too. They lost their first 13 games, and it looked likely they might lose them all. But then they managed to win one. And then they won again. That second victory officially took them out of the running for the chance to draft Lawrence - a distinction that will instead go to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have managed to out-Jets the Jets by going 1-14 against an easier schedule. By bothering to win - and then by doing it a second time - the Jets sustained what could be their worst loss. In a way, it seemed appropriate.

And so an organization that's spent the better part of the last 50 years searching for a franchise quarterback will not have a franchise quarterback land in its lap. That leaves the Jets with some huge decisions to make based on a complex set of factors. Let's unpack the different scenarios.

Does this mean there are no other potential franchise QBs to select?

Not necessarily. But Lawrence has that word "generational" frequently attached to his name because he's one of those quarterbacks that all of the pundits and tape-eaters and armchair Twitter scouts agree is on an entirely different level than everyone else. Think Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, or John Elway - when all three were about to enter the NFL, the consensus opinion was that they were all going to be stars. And they were. Lawrence has that kind of otherworldly potential.

But what about the others?

There are some terrific prospects in the 2021 draft class, for sure: Ohio State's Justin Fields, BYU's Zach Wilson, Alabama's Mac Jones, Florida's Kyle Trask, and North Dakota State's Trey Lance. But the draftniks are using words like "substantial" and "significant" to describe the gap between Lawrence and every one of them. Which adds an element of risk to the equation that in all likelihood won't be there for Lawrence.

In what way?

Well, consider how difficult it can be for NFL teams - who are staffed with people who are paid to make these evaluations - to scout quarterbacks. Take a look how quarterbacks selected in the first round between 2015 and 2019 have fared:

For all the pre-draft hype that surrounds first-round QBs, most don't pan out. Even the Jets have a QB on that list.

Right. Sam Darnold. What are they going to do with him?

That depends. Darnold has one year remaining on his cost-controlled rookie contract, which carries a 2021 salary-cap figure of about $9.8 million. But that deal also includes a team option for a fifth year at a fully guaranteed salary and cap number of around $25 million, and a decision on triggering that option for 2022 will have to be made in May 2021. So: Tough call.

On one hand, it's kind of tough to evaluate Darnold from the outside. He's had Adam Gase's smudgy fingerprints all over him the last two years, and as a rookie his offensive coordinator was a guy Todd Bowles plucked from a mountaintop. Darnold's also largely worked with a poor receiving corps, and a not-so-great offensive line. On the other hand, he's only occasionally flashed the kind of excellence that can overcome those obstacles, which creates a chicken-and-egg conundrum: Has Darnold been bad because his support system is bad, or is he just bad? That is the question.

So what's the answer?

Damn it, I knew you were going to ask that. But that's the thing: it depends on who's answering. There are undoubtedly other teams that think Darnold's career can be salvaged with the right coaching and the right personnel around him - Ryan Tannehill's an oft-cited example of a QB who thrived in the right setting once he was able to get Gase's stink off him. Which means the Jets could have plenty of trade suitors if they want to go that route and add more draft capital.

Like who?

A number of teams could be looking for a quarterback this offseason: Chicago, Denver, Washington, Indianapolis, San Francisco, New England, even maybe Detroit, Atlanta, or Pittsburgh. All it takes is for one of them to make an offer to general manager Joe Douglas' liking.

Would any trade partners have to take on Darnold's contract?

Yes, and that's part of what might make him attractive to a QB-needy team. He'd only cost the trading team $4.7 million in cash and cap for 2021, though what's trickier is that team would still have to decide by May - before he plays a down for it - on what to do with his pricier 2022 team option. In the past, fifth-year options for first-round picks were guaranteed only for injury until the start of the league year that includes the option, when they would become fully guaranteed. The new collective bargaining agreement signed in 2020 makes those options fully guaranteed once they're exercised.

What will the deciding factor be, then?

The bottom line, as Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer wrote this week, is Douglas' opinion of Darnold. Douglas didn't draft Darnold, and he's also soon going to be hiring a head coach who will presumably have a vision for the QB position that's something more than Gase's, which is: "I coached Peyton Manning, and by 'coached Peyton Manning,' I mean I watched him do what he already knew to do. Therefore I'm an innovator."

Would Douglas want to yoke that coach to Darnold? Would Douglas want to stake his own job prospects to Darnold, now that he has the chance and the top-three pick to make the Big QB Decision himself? Does Douglas think the benefits of keeping Darnold outweigh what might be gained by drafting one of the non-Lawrence options, which would include four years of low-cost control? You get the idea.

What else might the Jets do with the No. 2 pick?

There's nothing that says the Jets have to take a quarterback, but the advantage of having the No. 2 pick is that it puts them in control of the situation. Waiting until later in the draft to take a QB carries the risk that another team may select the dude they've had their eye on. That said, the Jets could select a tackle like Oregon's Penei Sewell, or a wideout, or they could trade back to add additional picks.

The Jets already own nine selections in the 2021 draft, including five in the first three rounds, thanks to an additional first- and third-rounder Douglas acquired from Seattle as part of the Jamal Adams trade. They also figure to have more than $70 million in cap space to spend on free agents.

That sounds familiar.

Yeah, yeah. Having lots of picks and a ton of cap space were themes of offseasons past under previous GMs Mike Maccagnan and John Idzik. But if you squint hard enough when you look at the Jets' current roster, you can see a handful of foundational young pieces at key positions: left tackle Mekhi Becton, defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, safety Marcus Maye, and wideout Denzel Mims. There's work to be done, but there's also something to work with. Douglas just needs to keep finding good players with the draft and cap assets he has.

Do you really see Douglas keeping Darnold?

I have a hard time thinking he will, if only because it might be best for both sides to get a fresh start. But I'm not Douglas and I don't have direct access to all the information he and his scouts and personnel people will glean in the months ahead as they plan for free agency and the draft, so don't hold me to that.

Dom Cosentino is a senior features writer for theScore.

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