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If you want to know how bad the NFC East has been this year, just consider that the one-win Eagles (-4.5, 45) host the one-win Giants on Thursday in a game that, somehow, has crucial implications for the divisional race. Hold your nose before betting this one.
Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Thursday night.
Since 2018, no team has had more exaggerated home-road splits against the spread than the Giants, who've been both the league's worst bet at home (4-15 ATS) and the best bet on the road (15-4 ATS). They've also been stellar during that span as road underdogs (13-3 ATS) and when catching at least 4.5 points (12-6 ATS).
The Eagles are one of the only clubs that have rivaled New York's home woes since 2018, as they're tied for the third-worst home record (6-13-1 ATS) during that span. Philadelphia is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite and 10-22 ATS in its last 32 games laying points at home against a division rival.
If you're a believer in prime-time trends, though, you may want to consider the Eagles, who've covered five straight on Thursdays and are 12-6 ATS in the night slot since beating New York on a Thursday night in late 2016. The Giants are 4-9 ATS in prime time since that game and have lost four straight Thursday contests.
Richard Rodgers over 3.5 receptions (+128)
If you'd never heard of Rodgers before, you'll know his name after Thursday night. The former third-round pick had just one catch in two seasons with the Eagles entering this year, but injuries to Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert have elevated him to the top spot on the depth chart for an offense that loves to feature its tight ends.
Philly has averaged 9.4 completions to its tight ends since the start of 2018, while New York has allowed 4.6 receptions per game to opposing tight ends during that span. Rodgers had three catches last week while playing a season-high 60% of his team's offensive snaps, and he should be in for a bigger workload in his first full game as the top tight end.
Daniel Jones over 29.5 rushing yards (-106)
Sometimes a number just appears off, and this one doesn't make a ton of sense. Jones ranks fourth in the NFL this year in rushing yards per game among quarterbacks (34), and he's rushed for at least 45 yards in three of his last four contests, including 74 yards a week ago against Washington.
The Eagles let Lamar Jackson run wild last week for 108 yards on nine carries, and they'll struggle to keep Jones under 30 yards rushing Thursday.
For whatever reason, the Giants have been inefficiently priced as road underdogs for a while now, and they're getting too many points against an Eagles club that has repeatedly failed as a favorite. These are both bad football teams with bad offenses, though New York ranks as the better club by advanced metrics even before accounting for Philadelphia's recent injuries.
With Miles Sanders and their top two tight ends likely out, don't expect the frisky Eagles team we've seen in recent weeks. Instead, take the points in what will likely be an ugly affair.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.