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No harm, no foul in last week's player props since we went 2-2.
Here's what stands out for this upcoming Sunday.
Don't look now, but the Panthers have ripped off three straight. However, lost amid the surge has been a porous DVOA run defense which currently ranks No. 29 in the league.
So while everyone races to applaud Carolina, I'm going to catch 'em napping by playing the over on Montgomery's rushing yards.
The Bears have a solid advantage in the trenches, with the Panthers piling up a handful of injuries along the front. If Montgomery gets going early, he'll be able to put up some numbers on a defense allowing north of five yards per carry.
The market's expecting a pretty wide-open game between the Lions and Jaguars. I agree and also think Detroit will do the bulk of the damage - the club is taking on a Jags unit currently dead last in the league in DVOA pass defense.
Stafford and the Lions currently rank No. 11 in explosive pass rate despite playing a pretty decent schedule so far. The veteran quarterback will have a field day versus a Jacksonville secondary sitting at No. 29 in explosive pass rate allowed.
The Washington Football Team is loaded with potential in the front seven. The franchise enters Week 6 averaging three sacks per game, tied for sixth in the league.
The opportunities that arise from allowing a scrambling quarterback to get loose is usually the only downside to possessing a daunting pass rush. This should be a regular day at the office for Jones, who's accustomed to running for his life when the pocket collapses.
The market isn't expecting a ton of points - the 42.5 total is the lowest on the board - but Jones should compile a ton of yards on the ground against a team giving up the second-most rushing yards to signal-callers in 2020.
Jones has done just about everything for the Packers in 2020. Not only is he averaging 5.8 yards per rush as the featured back, but he's also adding production in the passing game, averaging close to four receptions per contest.
This is a week where I'd like to back Jones as a receiver. If the rusher can't get going on the ground - the Buccaneers are giving up a league-low 2.7 yards per carry - he should have no problem through the air. Tampa Bay allows the fifth-most receptions and yards per game to opposing running backs.
(Odds source: theScore Bet).
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.