NFL Week 4 survivor picks: Rams to rebound against hapless Giants
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Week 3 played out perfectly for us. If you listened, you dodged a bullet that hit many others by avoiding the Eagles and you're onto Week 4 after the Colts delivered an expected beating.

Unfortunately, we don't have the Jets to pick on this week unless you're a Brett Rypien believer, in which case you're a braver person than I.

Week 4 confidence ranking

Confidence rankings (CR) are out of 10 based on the author's picks:

AWAY HOME (SPREAD) PICK (CR)
NY Giants LA Rams (-12.5) LAR (9)
Baltimore Washington (+13.5) BAL (8)
Atlanta Green Bay (-7.5) GB (7)
LA Chargers Tampa Bay (-7.5) TB (6)
Cleveland Dallas (-5) DAL (6)
Philadelphia San Francisco (-7) SF (6)
Minnesota Houston (-3.5) HOU (5)
New England Kansas City (-7) KC (5)
New Orleans Detroit (+4) NO (4)
Arizona Carolina (+3.5) ARI (4)
Seattle Miami (+6.5) SEA (4)
Pittsburgh Tennessee (+1) PIT (4)
Jacksonville Cincinnati (-3) CIN (3)
Indianapolis Chicago (+3) CHI (3)
Buffalo Las Vegas (+3) LV (2)
Denver NY Jets (+3) NYJ (1)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Author's pick: Los Angeles Rams

The good news is there's another New York team we can pick on.

The Giants began the season by competing against the Steelers and nearly pulling off an impressive comeback versus the Bears. But Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard got hurt in Chicago and it's been all downhill from there, as New York unraveled against the 49ers' second-string offense in Week 3.

With a leaky offensive line and two key weapons missing, Daniel Jones is in for a nightmarish afternoon against Aaron Donald and a ferocious Rams front. Jones is 1-10 straight up as an underdog while starting, losing 10 in a row after winning his first career start as a 5.5-point 'dog against the Buccaneers. Furthermore, the Giants are 0-3 against the spread as underdogs with Jones starting, losing by an average of 19.3 points.

Now, Joe Judge's team must travel across the country for a date with a Rams team out for blood after a controversial loss against the Bills. Los Angeles comes into this game second in the NFL in both yards per play and third-down conversions on offense, while the Giants' defense ranks dead last on third downs, allowing opposing teams to convert at an absurd 58.14% clip. It will be a nice break for the Rams' defense as well, as New York ranks 27th in yards per play and 31st in points per game.

Los Angeles is 16-2 SU under Sean McVay when favored by at least a touchdown; the team will comfortably improve on that mark Sunday.

Avoid: Kansas City Chiefs

Advising people against trusting Patrick Mahomes isn't exactly how I planned on going about this, especially not after the clinic he put on Monday night against the Ravens. But if there's one coach who makes me proceed with some caution, it's Bill Belichick.

I'm not huge on past results because the teams have changed quite a bit and Mahomes seems to be getting better by the day, but he is 1-2 in his career against the Patriots. This is also a tough spot for the Chiefs, who are coming off an emotional Monday night win and will now have to prepare for New England on a short week.

Cam Newton poses a similar test to a Kansas City defense that just faced Lamar Jackson. Frankly, much of the Ravens' offensive struggles in the loss were down to some questionable play-calling, as Jackson ran wild when he wanted to. Why Baltimore opted not to stick with that approach is baffling. Belichick will take notice and give Newton free reign to take off as he sees fit.

The Chiefs should win, but would anyone be truly shocked if they don't? There are much better spots to use Kansas City going forward, especially with so many other attractive options this week in the Rams, Ravens, and Packers.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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NFL Week 4 survivor picks: Rams to rebound against hapless Giants
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