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Tampa Bay's odds to win Super Bowl LV (at its home stadium, no less) were shortened to 15-1 at theScore Bet on Tuesday, hours after Brady announced he'd be ending his 19-year run with the New England Patriots. He's expected to officially sign with the Bucs as soon as Wednesday.
The Buccaneers opened at 60-1 and were as high as 40-1 at some shops ahead of free agency. But with the signing all but done, the club is now tied for the sixth-shortest odds to win it all next season. Here's a list of every team with a price shorter than 25-1:
|Kansas City Chiefs||+600|
|San Francisco 49ers||+800|
|New Orleans Saints||+800|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+1500|
|Green Bay Packers||+1500|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+2000|
|New England Patriots||+2000|
The Buccaneers have missed the playoffs for 12 straight years. But shortened odds are to be expected when a team signs Brady, whose now-former club hasn't won fewer than 10 games in a season since 2002 - when Bucs receiver Chris Godwin was 6 years old.
Godwin and fellow wideout Mike Evans surely played a key role in Brady's decision, as the two All-Pro receivers constitute arguably the best one-two punch that Brady has ever had. Both recorded at least 1,150 yards a season ago; Julian Edelman has never reached that mark in his 10-year career.
With Jameis Winston at the helm last year, the Bucs ranked first in the league in passing yards per game (302.8) and third in passing touchdowns (33). They also led the NFL with an abysmal 41 turnovers, a number that's sure to drop significantly with Brady in charge.
Those turnover numbers also skew how productive Tampa Bay's defense actually was last year. While the Buccaneers ranked 29th in points allowed per game (28.1), they finished sixth in points allowed per play (5.1) and forced 28 turnovers, fifth-most in the league. After ranking dead last in DVOA in 2018, they ranked fifth last year and third in weighted DVOA thanks to a top-ranked rush defense and stellar pass rush that should remain mostly intact next season.
Can Brady carry his division-winning streak from the AFC East to the NFC South, where the Saints are three-time reigning champions? Though divisional odds aren't yet available at theScore Bet, the Buccaneers are as high as 2-1 elsewhere to win the division.
If he can maintain that streak, Brady could very well win his fourth MVP award at age 43. He's already the oldest winner in league history, and this offense will be among the highest-volume passing attacks he's been a part of. He's 20-1 to win the award this year, ahead of Drew Brees (+2200), Aaron Rodgers (+2200), and Winston (+2500).
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.