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While we're seven months away from the 2020 NFL season, it's never too early to look ahead at Super Bowl odds.
The reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs are favored to repeat, but there are some interesting opening numbers on the board, including a rare opportunity to find value with Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots.
Here are the current odds to win Super Bowl LV, along with some analysis of teams that stand out.
|Kansas City Chiefs||5-1|
|San Francisco 49ers||8-1|
|New Orleans Saints||10-1|
|New England Patriots||14-1|
|Green Bay Packers||20-1|
|Los Angeles Rams||25-1|
|Los Angeles Chargers||40-1|
|Las Vegas Raiders||40-1|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||60-1|
|New York Jets||80-1|
|New York Giants||80-1|
The Chiefs are built to last with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, but repeating as Super Bowl champions isn't easy. The last team to win consecutive titles was New England in 2004 and 2005, and it's only happened three times since 1990. The Chiefs should be in the mix again if Mahomes stays healthy, but the odds are against them hoisting a second straight Lombardi Trophy.
The Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers are always overvalued in the futures market because of their huge fan bases, and next season is no different. The Cowboys opened at 12-1 and the Steelers at 16-1 despite both teams missing the playoffs this season. The Cowboys are expected to be improved under Mike McCarthy and his new coaching staff, but should they really have the fourth-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl? Probably not. The rival Philadelphia Eagles offer better value at 20-1.
It hasn't happened often over the last 20 years, but there is value in betting on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl heading into a season. With Tom Brady's future in New England uncertain, the Patriots opened at 14-1 to win it all. While Brady is going to test free agency, it's already being reported that New England will offer him $30 million a year to stick around. It's far more likely that Brady stays with the Patriots than signs with a team like the Chargers. Once that happens, 14-1 won't be available much longer, making the Patriots the best value on the board for the first time in over a decade.
Recent history suggests a team in the 40-1 range will make a Super Bowl run. Three seasons ago, the eventual champion Eagles opened at 60-1. Two years ago, the Chiefs began at 50-1 and were a Dee Ford offsides penalty away from making the Super Bowl. This past season, the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers both started out at 40-1 and finished as the No. 1 seeds in each conference, with the 49ers advancing to the big game.
Looking ahead to 2020, three teams in the AFC South are listed at 40-1. The Titans could have the most value after coming up just short of a Super Bowl appearance this season. Tennessee closed the year on a 9-4 run after Ryan Tannehill became the starting quarterback and is expected to re-sign Tannehill this offseason. The Titans also need to lock up Derrick Henry, the reigning NFL rushing champion and an impending free agent. If Tannehill and Henry are back in the offense to go along with a strong defense, the Titans' odds will likely shorten to around 25-1.
Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.