NFL best bets for Week 11
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Every Friday during the NFL season, theScore's betting writers release their best bets for the week. Each writer has been given an imaginary $1,000 bankroll to manage throughout the campaign. If you decide to follow any of the picks, please gamble responsibly.
Odds courtesy of theScore Bet.
Alex Kolodziej ($1,077)
Season record: 10-6 (+$77)
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Total: 41
After watching the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Arizona Cardinals miraculously convert every third and long or get bailed out by penalties to extend drives, I swore off betting unders last week. Naturally, I am betting an under this week. I sincerely loathe everything about this.
I’m pretty much done hyping up the Dolphins as some underrated unit with upside; you can only scream “but Ryan Fitzpatrick’s yards per attempt is high!” or “this is the year DeVante Parker goes off!” from the rooftops so many times. Last week, the Dolphins won a game in which they posted 3.7 yards per play. How is that even possible?
Three weeks ago, these two teams faced each other and went over the total comfortably. Miami’s offense converted more than 50% of its third downs, an anomaly for a unit that ranks No. 24 in that department this season. I don’t think this offense can replicate that success against the same opponent in a three-week span.
Meanwhile, Buffalo’s offense isn’t tailored to beat up on the Dolphins. Miami’s secondary is banged up and prone to allowing big plays, but the Bills don’t have a passing game. After both teams combined for 52 points in Week 8, I’m expecting a different result on Sunday.
Pick: Under 41 ($30)
C Jackson Cowart ($951)
Season record: 9-9-2, -$49
New England Patriots (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 44.5
Just two weeks ago, we were celebrating the Patriots' defense as among the all-time greats and counting the wins to an undefeated season. Then the Ravens ran the ball down their throats and suddenly New England is a short favorite with a week to prepare for a flawed Eagles team. Wait, what?
The Patriots are still 6-3 ATS on the year, and they're in a prime spot for a big win. Bill Belichick is 12-3 ATS in his last 15 games off a bye week, and he's 49-27-2 ATS (64.5%) off a loss since taking over in New England. The under is also a remarkable 9-0-1 after the Patriots' last 10 losses, suggesting Belichick leans on his strengths to right the ship.
New England's receiving corps is too thin to truly attack Philly's vulnerable pass defense, but its elite secondary should limit Carson Wentz and force the Eagles to follow a Ravens-esque game plan. Philadelphia simply doesn't have the horses to win that way, so expect another low-scoring Pats win.
Pick: Patriots -3.5 ($40), under 44.5 ($30)
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 49.5
The Saints' offense rarely lays two eggs in a row under Sean Payton, going 15-6 to the over after scoring fewer than 14 points in the previous game. Michael Thomas should have a field day against Tampa Bay's suspect secondary, while two of the best receivers in the NFL take the field for the Bucs, who have seen seven straight overs. Expect another one on Sunday.
Pick: Over 49.5 ($40)
Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings
Total: 39.5
Low totals have been something of a cheat code this year, with the under going 14-4 when the number is 41 or below, and 10-2 at 40 or lower. Two great defenses collide in Minnesota, with one side sporting a mediocre backup quarterback and the other relying on a potent run game. Mike Zimmer is an under king as a home favorite, adding to the appeal of this low-total spot.
Pick: Under 39.5 ($40)
Thomas Casale ($828)
Season record: 6-7-2, -$162
New England Patriots (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Jackson already pointed out many of the reasons I like the Patriots this week. I'll just add that Tom Brady is 28-3 ATS as a favorite of seven points or fewer when coming off a loss. Is that good? The Ravens showed the blueprint to attack the Pats' defense, but the Eagles simply don't have the running game to replicate it. Philly's average receivers won't be able to beat New England's aggressive man defense, especially with Alshon Jeffery's status in doubt for Sunday. This is a huge public play but I see the Patriots winning the game by 10+, so I'll take them as a short road favorite over a still overvalued Eagles team.
Pick: Patriots -3.5 ($50)
Alex Moretto ($632)
Season record: 8-12-1, -$368
Dallas Cowboys (-6) at Detroit Lions
I locked this in early in the week at -3 with the expectation that Matthew Stafford wouldn't play, and it was announced on Friday that he's out for the game. As a result, the line moved to -6, but I'd play it up to a touchdown. Stafford masks a lot of the Lions' issues, specifically their inability to run the ball or play defense.
What keeps Detroit in games is Stafford's ability to sling the ball around for chunk plays and light up the scoreboard. All due respect to Jeff Driskel, but this is far from a competitive game without Stafford. The Cowboys' offense should stay red-hot against the Lions' 30th-ranked defense. Also, this might be the rare occasion where Jason Garrett isn't outcoached, with Matt Patricia on the opposite sideline.
Pick: Cowboys -6 ($80)
New York Jets at Washington Redskins (-1.5)
Did we all just forget how dysfunctional this Jets team is because of one win over the Giants? The Redskins aren't exactly a model organization either, but they match up well with the Jets, as they can get pressure on Sam Darnold and make him see ghosts. Dwayne Haskins was brutal in two appearances off the bench, but I was impressed by his first career start, on the road against a terrific Bills defense. This game will be much more negotiable for him, having had two weeks to get ready for a poor Jets secondary with the Redskins coming out of their bye.
Pick: Redskins -1.5 ($50)
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
The Bears went three-and-out on 58.3% of their possessions against the Lions and managed just 226 yards of offense. Both of those totals were the worst in the NFL in Week 10 and came against the league's 30th-ranked defense. That's putrid. Nothing about this Bears' offense is remotely close to functional right now.
Now they take to the road for a game against a Rams defense hitting its stride, ranked fourth in DVOA. Los Angeles' defense leads the NFL in quarterback hurries. Mitch Trubisky is 43rd among all quarterbacks this season with a 46.4 rating and a 42% completion rate under pressure. Jared Goff hasn't been lighting it up either, but I trust him to make plays at home much more than I do Trubisky on the road, especially with Todd Gurley capable of a big game against a Bears defense that's been gashed by the run of late.
Pick: Rams -6.5 ($50)