Thursday Night Football betting preview: Steelers vs. Browns

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The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to take on the Cleveland Browns to open Week 11 in what's expected to be freezing-cold temperatures. Here's everything you need to know about the prime-time tilt from a betting perspective.

Line movement

Cleveland is a favorite over Pittsburgh for the first time since 2014. The Browns won that game but have gone 0-7-1 against their division rival since. Freddie Kitchens' team opened -3 and has since seen a fair share of juiced -2.5s around the marketplace. With the Steelers ranking fifth in defensive DVOA and the Browns fully healthy on their side, this total's been pushed from 41 to 40.

Betting breakdown

The Browns have seen an odd trend with their totals. After starting the season with six in the 44-48 range, their totals will eventually close at 43 or lower in four consecutive weeks. Cleveland hasn't had a dance partner to engage in a shootout in some time - it's played the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, and Buffalo Bills over its last three - but the Browns aren't the offensive team we thought they'd be. In fact, their approach has been out of whack.

With the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. at wide receiver and quarterback Baker Mayfield in his second year, we thought the Browns were due for a monster season in the passing game. Instead, they enter Week 11 No. 24 in passing DVOA and No. 15 in rushing despite throwing the ball more than 60% of the time.

Throwing the ball might be tough against a Steelers defense that's ranked fourth in passing DVOA and 11th in rushing. After running back Nick Chubb went off for 116 yards against the Bills last weekend - his fourth time crossing the century mark in his last six games - you'd expect another heavy dose Thursday. But Cleveland will probably try to throw the ball 40 times - that's just how things have played out this season.

Important trends

The Steelers are the NFL's hottest team against the spread right now. They've ripped off six covers in seven tries since Ben Roethlisberger went down with a season-ending injury. Pittsburgh isn't as aesthetically pleasing as it was in years past, but the team has impressed so far. It has covered in narrow losses to two of the league's best in the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens, and it beat both L.A. squads outright despite being the underdog in both.

X-Factor

Mayfield isn't having the year we thought he would to this point. The Browns quarterback is completing fewer than 60% of his passes, has more interceptions than touchdowns, and is getting sacked almost three times per game. He's going to be tested again Thursday against a Steelers defense that's ranked second in the league in adjusted sack rate. The last time Cleveland played a top-five defense in that department - San Francisco in Week 5 - Mayfield was sacked four times and the offense mustered a lone field goal in a 28-point blowout.

Pick

Browns team total over 20.5

Pittsburgh has been solid defensively, but there's a chance that it slips up against the rush in this one. The Steelers' success rate against the rush ranks in the bottom half of the league despite facing one of the easier slates of opposing offenses through 10 weeks. The secondary looks to be revamped since acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick from the Miami Dolphins, but again, the strength of schedule is concerning. The Steelers have allowed 16.7 points per game over the last four but have played passing offenses that rank 31st, 20th, 18th, and 10th in DVOA.

Cleveland should have success on the ground to open things up for Mayfield to make just enough plays.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.