NFL Week 7 action report: Public loves the 49ers
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The NFL season enters Week 7 with some big matchups on the slate. Where is the sharp money going? Which lines are moving the most? Each week throughout the campaign, we'll track the games drawing the most interest from bettors.
We talked to Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, to see how sharps and public bettors are playing the Week 7 schedule.
All lines courtesy of theScore Bet.
San Francisco 49ers (-9.5, 41) at Washington Redskins
In one of the week's most one-sided games on paper, the undefeated 49ers travel to the east coast to face the 1-5 Redskins. Washington is coming off a one-point win in Miami last week, but the Redskins are still a large home dog on Sunday.
As expected, heavy action is coming in on the 49ers, with bettors continuing to fade the struggling Redskins.
"This is the biggest one-sided game we have this week," Rood said. "Everybody is on the road favorite here. Money is 50-1 to San Fran and ticket count is in same range. We're gonna need the Redskins to play inside the number to bust up some liability. The Niners are definitely the team that the public is all over this week."
Oddsmakers could be in for a rough day on Sunday if they're depending on the Redskins to cover at home. Washington has failed to cover during five straight home games, and the team is 0-3 straight up this year at FedEx Field while being outscored 95-43.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-17, 41)
Back in August, did you think the Buffalo Bills would be 17-point favorites this season? Welcome to the current state of the Miami Dolphins.
Buffalo doesn't enter these waters often. The last time the Bills were a favorite of this magnitude was back in 1992 when it happened twice. Buffalo was a 17-point favorite over the New York Jets then and lost 24-17. That same year, Buffalo was a 16.5-point favorite over the Indianapolis Colts and lost again, dropping the game 16-13 in overtime. Is that a sign of things to come on Sunday?
When the line came out for this game over the summer, Buffalo was favored by 4.5. Bettors have typically been fading the lowly Dolphins, but with the Bills laying so many points this week, the action is split between the two squads.
"We're getting good two-way on the spread -17," Rood said. "The ticket count and money are dead even. It's not one of the higher activity games, but it's right there in the middle of the pack. We're seeing some +900 ML play on Dolphins too."
Miami hasn't experienced much luck when traveling north to face the Bills, going 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Buffalo.
Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 49.5)
The Seahawks are one win away from sweeping the AFC North this season. After the Seahawks already defeated the Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Cleveland Browns, the Ravens get the division's last chance to beat Seattle.
The Seahawks have actually generated more profit on the road than at home recently, failing to cover in four straight games at CenturyLink Field. However, bettors may not find much solace in backing Baltimore. The Ravens are 0-5 ATS this season after their opening day 59-10 blowout of the Dolphins.
While bettors are split on this matchup, the over 49.5 is seeing a lot of action in a game that pits MVP candidate quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson against each other.
"So far, the thing that stands out on this game is that 100% of the money on the total has come in on the over," Rood said. "Why all over? I think both offensive units have been pretty efficient. Neither defensive unit has really stood out. People are just betting what they've last seen."
Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.