NFL best bets for Week 2
Every Friday during the NFL season, theScore's sports-betting writers will release their best bets for the week. Each writer has been given an imaginary $1,000 bankroll to manage throughout the campaign. If you decide to follow any of the picks, please gamble responsibly.
Odds courtesy of theScoreBet.
Thomas Casale ($1,100)
Season Record: 2-0, +$100
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -3.5
The Patriots blasted the Steelers in Week 1, but everything points to Pittsburgh rebounding on Sunday.
Some head coaches excel at getting their team ready following a loss, and Mike Tomlin is near the top of that list. Tomlin's team is especially dangerous when returning home after a poor defensive performance. Under Tomlin, the Steelers are 19-3 straight up and 14-6-2 against the spread at home after allowing more than 30 points the previous week.
Bettors tend to overreact to Week 1 and, let's be honest, the Steelers' offense didn't look good at all. However, New England's defense will embarrass a lot of teams this year, so treat that game as a mulligan for Ben Roethlisberger and Co. Expect Big Ben and Pittsburgh's offense to get rolling at home versus a Seahawks defense that allowed 418 yards to Andy Dalton in Seattle's opener.
The clincher here is that the Seahawks have been terrible during road openers, going 2-12 SU and 1-12-1 ATS in that spot over the last 14 years. The Steelers should bounce back at home this week.
Pick: Steelers -3.5 ($70)
Alex Moretto ($996)
Season Record: 1-1, -$4
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -3.5
Pittsburgh is much better than what the Steelers showed in Week 1. Come January, we'll look back on that 33-3 loss to New England as an anomaly.
Coming back home, I fully expect a spirited response from the Steelers, or there will be hell to pay for Tomlin. Over the last five seasons, Roethlisberger has thrown 94 touchdown passes and 31 interceptions at Heinz Field, compared to 50 TDs and 37 INTs on the road.
This weekend, Big Ben can feast on a brutal Seahawks secondary, and that unit wasn't even Seattle's biggest issue in Week 1. The team's offensive line allowed four sacks against a Cincinnati front that ranked bottom five in sacks last season. Don't let the 21-20 score fool you, as the Bengals outgained the Seahawks 429-230. On talent alone, this might be Pete Carroll's worst roster during his time in Seattle.
Pittsburgh has won, and covered, each of its last eight games under Tomlin as a home favorite when coming off a double-digit loss dating back to 2008. Meanwhile, Seattle is 0-6-3 ATS (0-9 SU) in daytime kickoffs under Carroll as a road underdog in non-conference games.
Pick: Steelers -3.5 ($80)
Alex Kolodziej ($905)
Season Record: 0-3, -$95
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers
Total: 46.5
“Bet in the NFL market,” they said. “It’s super fun.”
Ah yes, whenever you can go 0-3 on totals and lose two by a combined four points, you have to go back to the well, right? Sure.
Here’s another total I like for Sunday. I’m not convinced the Steelers' offense is suddenly lost. There are conspiracy theorists who claim Pittsburgh didn’t want to show anything in Week 1 because the Steelers might meet New England down the road.
Let’s not mince words: The Steelers stunk on Sunday night. But Bill Belichick had also been preparing for months. Now, Pittsburgh welcomes a Seahawks defense that gave up plenty of chunk plays to a Bengals offense sans A.J. Green.
I’m not worried about Seattle’s offense with Russell Wilson leading the show, but I’d certainly appreciate that unit actually trying in the first half this week. Tomlin's team has gone over the total in each of its last five games against NFC opponents, and I don’t envision much defense in this one.
Pick: Over 46.5 ($20)
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Total: 45
The Packers' identity always confuses me. I often think they’re good, but does the market feel similar? Then I flip and think Green Bay could still be a paper tiger with Aaron Rodgers masking the roster’s flaws. Again, I wonder if I’m being too cute, or if that’s a realistic notion.
Either way, I’m back to thinking the Packers' offense isn't actually good after watching its performance against Chicago. Head coach Matt LaFleur was lucky to earn a win with his offense scoring 10 points. While I don’t think Green Bay's offense will be that bad all season, the market is overvaluing this team.
As for Minnesota, the offseason talk focussed on how the Vikings' offense will be more run-oriented. So far, so good, as it looks like we’re going to get less Kirk Cousins (10 passing attempts in Week 1) and more Dalvin Cook (21 rushing attempts) this season.
Keep the clock moving, please. I have a family (me) to feed this weekend.
Pick: Under 45 ($20)
Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos
Total: 40.5
This is such a square pick, and I imagine this game will be 45-45 heading into overtime. But I don’t understand how the total is set at 40.5 after what both these offenses did in Week 1.
Mitchell Trubisky looked horrendous (Bears fan here: Did you know Chicago traded up to pick him over Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes?). Last season, he benefitted from the Bears' defense creating turnovers to support him. But if you don't know it yet, you’ll realize soon that Trubisky just isn’t cut out to win games alone.
Now the Bears face an even worse matchup than Week 1, as they're playing in altitude against a head coach who was Chicago's defensive coordinator last season (Vic Fangio). I expect there will be pressure on Trubisky after the Broncos gave Derek Carr a vacation in the backfield on Monday night.
On the other side of the field, Denver’s offense offers little upside after it struggled against a below-average Raiders defense. The line got bullied, Joe Flacco was as conservative as ever, and the wide receivers looked out of sync.
It’ll be tough for both of these offenses to move the ball yet again.
Pick: Under 40.5 ($20)
C Jackson Cowart ($903)
Season Record:1-2, -$93
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -2.5
This line suggests oddsmakers value the Vikings a half-point more on a neutral field. It should be more than that after Week 1 when Minnesota dominated Atlanta on both sides of the ball, and Green Bay survived largely due to the Bears' atrocious offensive showing.
The Packers' offense sputtered during LaFleur's long-awaited debut, and it'll face a stiff test against a stout Vikings defense that bottled up Matt Ryan and Co. in Week 1. Green Bay's defense was impressive a week ago, too, though Trubisky played horribly while committing a litany of unforced errors under the lights.
Since 2017, road underdogs getting fewer than three points are 33-20-3 ATS (62.3%) and 31-25 SU. An outright record above .500 gives the underdog strong value, and I'm siding with oddsmakers here after they pegged Minnesota as the better team in a key divisional spot.
Pick: Vikings ML ($40 to win $52)
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Line: Cowboys -5
This line opened at Cowboys -4.5 and has reached -5.5 at some shops. I'd play it up to -6 or -7 given how strong Dallas' offense looked in Week 1 under new coordinator Kellen Moore. Even with Ezekiel Elliott easing into the offense, the Cowboys hung an easy 35 points on the Giants behind a stellar performance from MVP candidate Dak Prescott (405 yards, four TDs).
Now Prescott and Elliott can feast on a Redskins defense that allowed 302 yards and 25 points in the second half alone vs. Philly in Week 1, including two long bombs to a rejuvenated DeSean Jackson. Do you see visions of Amari Cooper running roughshod through the 'Skins secondary, too?
Dallas entered the year touting its defense as a strength, and that's still true after Week 1. If the Cowboys' offense comes close to repeating its opening-week performance, Sunday could get ugly for Washington.
Pick: Cowboys -5 ($30)
Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -13.5
A quick glance at the box score from Baltimore's Week 1 dismantling of Miami likely says all you need to know about this Ravens offense. But watch a few plays, and you'll realize just how dangerous the unit can be with Lamar Jackson throwing darts 40 yards downfield.
Arizona's secondary is still missing starters Patrick Peterson (suspension) and Robert Alford (injury), so the Ravens' offense could produce fireworks again on Sunday. The Cardinals will be hard-pressed to return fire during a shootout while faced with Baltimore's top-ranked defense and elite secondary.
Home favorites coming off a 45-point win are 6-1 ATS over the past three decades, covering by an average of 17.4 points in those six ATS wins. Baltimore should build off its Week 1 momentum, and the Cardinals could suffer after their disappointing opener. In the last 12 games when a road team is coming off a tie, that club is 1-11 ATS.
Pick: Ravens -13.5 ($30)