NFL Coach of the Year odds, best bets, and value play
With the start of the NFL season just over a month away, there are plenty of futures being released at sportsbooks. While bettors can wager on anything from NFL MVP winner to which team will finish with the league's worst record, the NFL Coach of the Year award offers some of the best value.
NFL Coach of the Year odds are appealing to bettors because the favorite rarely wins. Bill Belichick has taken home the award three times, but he hasn't won it since 2010. Only two active coaches - Belichick (three) and Ron Rivera (two) - have won the award more than once.
NFL Coach of the Year typically goes to someone whose team isn't expected to be very good, and the club then exceeds expectations.
In 2017, Sean McVay took home the award at 33-1 odds after the Rams improved from 4-12 to 11-5 in his first season. It was a similar story last year when Matt Nagy won after leading the Bears to a 12-4 record in his first year, a seven-game improvement from the previous season. Nagy opened at 20-1 odds, but he was bet down to 10-1 before the start of the season.
This year, oddsmakers are expecting the 49ers to be one of the most improved teams. Kyle Shanahan opened as the 10-1 favorite to win the award, with Belichick, McVay, and the Browns' Freddie Kitchens following him, all at 12-1. However, if history is any indicator, the winner will come from further down the board.
Here are the odds to win 2019 NFL Coach of the Year, along with some best bets and a value play to consider.
| Coach | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Shanahan | 49ers | 10-1 |
| Bill Belichick | Patriots | 12-1 |
| Sean McVay | Rams | 12-1 |
| Freddie Kitchens | Browns | 12-1 |
| Frank Reich | Colts | 14-1 |
| Sean Payton | Saints | 14-1 |
| Andy Reid | Chiefs | 14-1 |
| Doug Pederson | Eagles | 16-1 |
| Matt Nagy | Bears | 20-1 |
| Matt LaFleur | Packers | 20-1 |
| Vic Fangio | Broncos | 20-1 |
| Bruce Arians | Buccaneers | 20-1 |
| Dan Quinn | Falcons | 20-1 |
| Anthony Lynn | Chargers | 20-1 |
| Pete Carroll | Seahawks | 22-1 |
| Doug Marrone | Jaguars | 25-1 |
| Bill O'Brien | Texans | 28-1 |
| Adam Gase | Jets | 28-1 |
| Mike Zimmer | Vikings | 28-1 |
| John Harbaugh | Ravens | 28-1 |
| Mike Tomlin | Steelers | 28-1 |
| Jason Garrett | Cowboys | 28-1 |
| Mike Vrabel | Titans | 33-1 |
| Ron Rivera | Panthers | 33-1 |
| Sean McDermott | Bills | 33-1 |
| Kliff Kingsbury | Cardinals | 33-1 |
| Zac Taylor | Bengals | 40-1 |
| Jon Gruden | Raiders | 40-1 |
| Pat Shurmur | Giants | 50-1 |
| Jay Gruden | Redskins | 50-1 |
| Matt Patricia | Lions | 50-1 |
| Brian Flores | Dolphins | 50-1 |
Best Bets
Matt LaFleur, Packers (20-1)
LaFleur has an advantage over every other first-year head coach because Aaron Rodgers is his quarterback.
The Packers stumbled to a 6-9-1 record in 2018. Mike McCarthy was fired in early December, and now it's up to LaFleur to fix what's wrong in Green Bay. LaFleur has never been a head coach before, but he was the Rams' offensive coordinator under McVay in 2017. If the 39-year-old can revitalize the Packers' offense and return Green Bay to the playoffs, he'll be in the conversation for Coach of the Year.
Oddsmakers are expecting the Packers to improve this season. Green Bay is +800 to win the NFC, and Rodgers is the second-highest favored (10-1) to win MVP. LaFleur is worth a shot at 20-1.
Adam Gase, Jets (28-1)
Gase receives a lot of criticism from fans, but he did take the Dolphins to the playoffs in 2016 with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, and he's entering a good situation with the Jets.
New York improved this offseason during free agency by adding running back Le'Veon Bell and linebacker C.J. Mosley. Quarterback Sam Darnold begins his second season with more weapons after finishing 2018 strong, throwing for 931 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions over his final four games.
When betting on Coach of the Year, we're looking for teams with the pieces in place to make a big jump from the previous season. After going 4-12 in 2018 and adding some key players this offseason, the Jets are a strong candidate to be the NFL's most improved team, which would put Gase in the Coach of the Year discussion.
Value Play
Matt Patricia, Lions (50-1)
The best value on the board right now comes from Patricia, and it's not even close.
It's absolutely crazy that Patricia has been given the longest odds along with Brian Flores, Jay Gruden, and Pat Shurmur. The Lions are more talented than the Dolphins, Redskins, and Giants. Don't be surprised if Detroit is the NFL's surprise team in 2019, with the club going from worst to first in the NFC North.
The Lions finished 6-10 in Patricia's first season while losing three games by three points or fewer. Detroit faces the longest odds to win the NFC North at +900, but oddsmakers are undervaluing the Lions heading into the season. Patricia has built up the offensive and defensive lines since coming to Detroit, and Matthew Stafford, an established quarterback, leads the huddle.
The Lions are in a much better position to make a playoff run than teams like the Redskins or Dolphins, and Patricia at 50-1 to win Coach of the Year is the top value play.