The top 5 betting plays for Week 7
A cloud of sadness hangs over my head following a 2-3 week. Why do I continue to bet against the Kansas City Chiefs?
But it's on to Week 7, aka the bounce-back week. Here are my top five plays. Be sure to shop around for the best prices.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Wager: Under 41.5
It's funny how the identities of these two teams have changed so drastically over such a short period of time.
Dallas can actually field a defense this season, even though Sean Lee's missed three weeks with yet another injury (he'll return Sunday). A back seven that was laughable for years employs one of the league's top-graded cornerbacks in Byron Jones. The Cowboys are finally getting after the quarterback, tied for seventh in the NFL with 18 sacks. All those elements combine to produce a defense that's allowing just 5.1 yards per play, good for fourth in the league. Furthermore, they're second in the league in rush yards allowed per attempt and tied for fifth (with Washington) in yards per completion.
Offensively, the scheme still lacks creativity as much as it does skill. Ezekiel Elliott has been able to run the ball, but that's about it. The Cowboys continue to have trouble being two-dimensional without a true home-run threat on the outside.
Washington is also dependent on defense after many years of relying on Kirk Cousins to bail the team out of high-scoring games. The Redskins quietly rank eighth in scoring defense and opponent yards per play this season. A Washington offense that shouldn't necessarily strike fear into Dallas' defense is also a little banged-up heading into Week 8. With potential gusts in the forecast as well, I'll take a shot on the under in this divisional matchup.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Wager: Jaguars -4.5
I don't know if you can keep Jacksonville's defense down for three straight weeks. The Jaguars didn't pass the test against the high-flying Chiefs - though Jacksonville actually outgained Kansas City in a 16-point loss - and didn't answer the bell in last weekend's 40-7 defeat to the Cowboys. This week, however, the defense should have plenty of opportunities to make life miserable for Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, who's been sacked 4.2 times per game - second-most in the NFL.
Jacksonville's offense has made some costly errors over the past couple weeks. Against the Chiefs, Blake Bortles and Co. turned the ball over six times in plus territory - three interceptions, two turnovers on downs, and one fumble. Still, while the Jaguars aren't flashy on offense, they're actually better than Houston in adjusted yards per play this season.
This feels like a good spot to buy low on the Jaguars. I expect them to play better on both sides of the ball in a crucial divisional game at home.
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers
Wager: Titans' team total over 18.5
Being sacked more times than you complete a pass in a game isn't great. Neither is investing in a team to score points after getting blanked at home.
The Titans looked lost last week against the Baltimore Ravens, seven days after posting 12 points in a loss to the Bills. But in a league where any offense can catch lightning in a bottle for four quarters, Tennessee might deserve your attention in Week 8.
The offense hasn't been efficient by any means. Marcus Mariota has been banged-up, the receiving corps is still short one or two playmakers, and bringing in Matt LaFleur - one of the masterminds behind the Rams' offensive turnaround last season - hasn't paid dividends yet. But the Titans should finally get some relief after playing defenses that are No. 1 (Baltimore) and No. 2 (Buffalo) in yards per play allowed this season.
Considering how the Chargers have been rolling offensively, Tennessee should have plenty of opportunities to score. It's all about executing, and this price is too good to pass up.
Extra Points
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts
Recommended Pick: Under 43
It feels as if there's a preconceived notion that the Indianapolis Colts' offense is good. It's not.
Sunday's Bills-Colts game will feature one offense that ranks dead last in the league in yards per play (that's the obvious one), and another that's No. 27. The Colts' scoring offense ranks in the top half of the league, but its numbers are skewed by garbage-time scores and field position off turnovers.
If Derek Anderson - a quarterback who was signed off the street less than two weeks ago - is going to beat me, so be it. And if the Bills' No. 2 defense wants to bend the knee to an offense with one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL, it's just going to be one of those weeks.
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
Recommended Pick: Panthers +5
I can't believe I'm saying this, but I actually like what the Panthers are doing offensively. Cam Newton is playing great football, the pass-catchers are healthy, and the skill corps in general only figures to improve given its youth.
Philadelphia's defense has some holes. The Eagles are giving up 5.7 yards per play, but have the biggest discrepancy when adjusting for strength of schedule (6.4). Betting against the defending champs might not be much fun, but I'd take a shot on the Panthers at this number.
Top plays: 13-4-1
Overall record: 20-9-1
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.