Top 5 betting plays for Week 3 of the NFL season

I should probably quit while I'm ahead.

The first two weeks of the NFL season - generally the toughest time of the year to find an edge - were both profitable. Do I want to regress? No. Will I? I mean, I hope not. Let me just try to keep giving out more winners than losers as we move into Week 3.

As a reminder, make a conscious effort to shop around for the best numbers before tailing or fading.

Top Plays

Giants at Texans

Wager: Over 41.5

Even only two weeks into the season, there are offenses I have a hard time trusting.

In the case of the Giants, the glaring issue is the offensive line. It simply can't block, meaning Eli Manning can't let routes develop and his play suffers.

But what separates New York from teams like Arizona and Buffalo is that it continues to present potential on a weekly basis. In fact, there isn't one offense in the NFL I want to shake with my bare hands and scream in the face of more than the Giants.

I see Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley, and I'm aghast that the Giants have gone 34 straight games without hitting 30 points. Obviously, this group can't be held accountable for that drought, but for new offensive coordinator Mike Shula to not squeeze every last bit of skill out of this cast has been maddening.

I'm not as worried about the Texans' offense moving forward. Deshaun Watson hasn't been as good as last season, but he's still moving the ball downfield, and Houston's offense is right in the middle of the pack at 5.2 yards per play. The Texans have scored 17 and 20 points in their first two games, but have turned the ball over three times in plus territory. They've also settled for more field goals, turning just 33 percent of their red-zone trips into touchdowns.

This is one play on the board that stuck out like a sore thumb. It's a mystery as to whether these sputtering offenses can get this one over 41.5, but I'm willing to pay a large price to find out.

Bears at Cardinals

Wager: Cardinals +5.5

Explosive plays have killed the Cardinals' defense through two games, but Week 4 presents a considerable matchup edge against a team that isn't tailored to create big plays.

The Bears have been retooled both in personnel and scheme under head coach Matt Nagy. The pass-catching group is essentially brand new, as the front office made a huge effort in the offseason to give second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky more weapons.

What we've learned through two games is that despite all these shiny new toys, Trubisky isn't ready to be unleashed.

Chicago might have a diverse scheme, but it's not predicated on pushing the ball downfield in a hurry. The 47 points scored this season are a bit deceiving as the defense has accounted for two touchdowns; the offense has averaged just 4.4 yards per play.

Arizona's offense, on the other hand, is going to struggle all season. Outside of David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, it's tough to find a mismatch in the Cardinals' favor.

But in what could be a relatively low-scoring game, I'll take the points for the home team and buy low on Arizona

49ers at Chiefs

Wager: 49ers +6.5

While I do believe the Chiefs could end up being one of the season's biggest surprises when all is said and done, I still think they're being overvalued in this spot.

It may have been lazy analysis to claim the Chiefs would struggle in 2018 because of the defense. In reality, when your offense is putting up 40 points per game, you don't need a great unit on the other side of the ball.

It's also easy to fawn over Patrick Mahomes, and what he and the rest of the Chiefs' offense has accomplished through two games. And that's likely a big reason why the spread on Sunday has jumped more than three points in comparison to the preseason look-ahead lines.

Still, Niners quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo gets a real nice matchup against a Chiefs defense that hasn't been criticized like it should because Mahomes and the offense has bailed it out twice this season.

Extra Points

Bengals at Panthers

Wager: Under 43.5

As a sucker for non-conference overs - and for letting the Panthers' offense dictate my bankroll three-to-five times per year - I actually like the under in this game quite a bit.

Carolina is still so hard to trust offensively. There are many horizontal principles in an offense with a quarterback that can heave it, but it feels like every Panthers drive takes up more then six minutes.

I love that the Bengals' offense has opened it up, but similar to how I treated the Texans-Giants game, I'll pay to find out if it's real.

Chargers at Rams

Wager: Chargers +7

The look-ahead line for this one was Rams -3.5. Am I supposed to believe that - even with some offseason additions and wins over the lowly Raiders and Cardinals - the Rams should magically be giving twice as many points?

I like the Rams as much as the next person, but they haven't done anything outside the norm to prove they should be the Super Bowl favorite after double-digit wins against a pair of likely bottom-five teams.

We're getting a full touchdown on a team that doesn't have to travel all that far? Yes, please.

Top plays: 4-1-1
Overall record: 7-2-1

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.