NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game

Ladies and gentlemen, break up the red-hot Arizona Coyotes!

The NHL's worst team racked up three wins in four games last week and were dangerously close to a fourth, which ended up being a shootout loss to the Blue Jackets. Our weekly look at the reasonable prices to bet on each team has shown value in the Desert Dogs every game this season, but as we were unsure of whether or not they were trying to win after a 1-14 start, we placed a betting ban on them.

As always, removal of that ban is a personal decision, but things are a little brighter in the Valley of the Sun.

The recipe

We provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

I've taken the advanced stats I value most from those games, the market rating for regular-season win-total markets, and last season's advanced stats to create a rating for each team. I also make adjustments for injuries to key players.

With roughly 21% of the season played, here's how I'm weighing those three factors as of Nov. 22:

Last season's advanced metrics act as a balancer so that a high percentage of Canadian hockey fans (and bettors) don't get over-excited about the Jets, Oilers, and Flames - who have outperformed last year's metrics through nearly a quarter of the new season.

Next, we use the regular-season point-total market to account for our assessment of these teams before the campaign. We all had the chance to bet the under on the Golden Knights, but not enough of us did to drop that number lower. More importantly, it's a number used to remind us what they're capable of once they get their star players back in the lineup.

This season's metrics look beyond a team's record to evaluate how that team is playing, so we can see if they might be trending up or down. For example, the Panthers have the most points in the NHL, but are they the top team in my numbers? Actually, yes, they are. But you would probably be surprised to hear that the league's second-place team in the standings - the Hurricanes - are actually expected to be below average going forward according to my metrics.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet.

If you're looking at betting a game this week, refer to this chart to see whether or not you're truly getting value with one side or the other. New injuries or lineup issues will naturally arise, but this is a good reference point for identifying whether the side you like actually has value.

There's a cornucopia of 50-50 games this Thanksgiving week, which creates an opportunity for a bet if any side is available at better than +110. With no favorite according to our numbers, I'm willing to make a bet at a 2.5% edge.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.