Friday MLB player props: Best bets to hit a home run
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Friday's loaded MLB slate features a new cycle of matchups to probe through. Instead of dissecting the games from a standard spread or total perspective, our goal is to find value on who will hit a home run.
Here are the best bets to open the weekend.
Manny Machado, Padres +350
It's early, but Machado is smoking the ball.
The Padres star is currently in the 92nd percentile in exit velocity, while both his hard-hit and barrel percentages are in the 78th percentile or better. He homered in the second game of the year against Arizona and again Wednesday in San Francisco. This weekend, Machado should improve on his numbers when he and the Padres head to Coors Field to take on the Rockies.
Colorado will trot out Jon Gray on Friday. He served up five homers versus the Padres in 2019, the most against any opponent. Gray's specifically had trouble retiring Machado, who's 6-for-18 with two homers and a 1.035 OPS lifetime against the starting pitcher.
Carlos Correa, Astros +390
Correa is off to a rocking start. He's collected nine hits in his first 22 at-bats, including one homer. Looking at his Statcast numbers, don't be surprised if he starts clearing the wall more.
Taking his hard-hit percentage (81st percentile) and combining them with his launch angle (20.2 degrees), it's bizarre that Correa doesn't have at least a couple more home runs.
He could have his way Friday against the Angels' Matt Andriese; the Astros infielder has three hits and one homer over six career at-bats against the right-hander.
Joey Gallo, Rangers +390
No sleepers today; Gallo makes it three star players for Friday's slate.
Oracle Park has long been pitcher-friendly, but new tweaks to the stadium could start benefiting batters, especially those who hit from the left side. Dimensions in right field are shorter, not to mention a new jet stream.
We could see some high drives Friday with some gusts blowing out, making Gallo a prime candidate.
The Rangers slugger had no shortage of tape-measure shots in 2019, averaging 419 feet per long ball. Giants starter Logan Webb will be severely outmatched Friday.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.