Thursday MLB player props: Best bets to hit a home run
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We've been blanked the last two days after starting our home run prop series off with a +260 winner on Monday. With 10 more games on tap for Thursday's slate, let's go back to the drawing board.
Here are Thursday's best bets to hit a home run.
Ian Happ, Cubs +500
Happ's been inconsistent during his time up in the majors, but he might be scratching the surface of a breakout.
The 25-year-old has been flat-out crushing the ball to start the season. Not only does he have two home runs, his exit velocity (94th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (93rd) signal some optimism heading forward.
Happ and Co. will see Cincinnati's Luis Castillo on Thursday. Although the infielder doesn't have a home run off the Reds ace, he's 5-for-10 with a pair of extra-base hits and only one strikeout in his career.
Renato Nunez, Orioles +460
Nunez could be the best play of the night.
The Orioles third baseman has feasted on Yankees southpaw J.A. Happ, going 11-for-19 with four home runs, eight driven in, and a mind-numbing 1.882 OPS in his career.
Last season, Nunez loved hitting at Camden Yards. He posted more home runs at home and was significantly better overall at the dish (.263 batting average vs. .223 on the road).
To top it off, the forecast calls for sunny skies and a light wind blowing out. This could be a slugfest.
Whit Merrifield, Royals +800
Merrifield has already established himself as one of the league's best contact hitters. If he continues swinging like he has, he'll see a significant uptick in his power stroke.
The veteran infielder already has two homers and three doubles in his first six games. So far in 2020, Merrifield is in the 90th percentile in xBA, xSLG, and xWOBA. He's getting serious lift on the ball, too: Merrifield's launch angle is currently 22.8 degrees. For context, his single-best season was 16.9 in 2018.
Merrifield and the Royals face Detroit's Ivan Nova on Thursday in what'll feature the second-highest total of the slate. The second baseman hasn't yet cranked a homer off the starting pitcher in his career, but he's 6-for-10 with zero strikeouts.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.