What can bettors learn from 1st 60 games of recent MLB seasons?
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To get a taste of the potential craziness of this shortened MLB season, you only have to look back at last year's World Series champions.
Through 60 games, the Nationals were in 13th in the NL with a 27-33 record, 15 games back of the MLB-leading Dodgers. If the regular season had ended then, we can surmise how the postseason would have gone - without the Nats to challenge them in the divisional series, the Dodgers may have waltzed through the NL and faced the Astros in an epic World Series.
Of course, that's not how it went, because the Nationals had 102 more games to play. What happens when that isn't the case?
To help guide bettors in this year's unpredictable World Series market, we combed through the last 10 seasons to see how things stood at the 60-game mark and what we could learn about the eventual title contenders at that point. Here's a snapshot of the last decade and the biggest takeaways for bettors.
| Year | WS winner | WS loser | 60-game leader |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Nationals (27-33) | Astros (40-20) | Dodgers (41-19) |
| 2018 | Red Sox (41-19) | Dodgers (30-30) | Red Sox |
| 2017 | Astros (42-18) | Dodgers (35-25) | Astros |
| 2016 | Cubs (42-18) | Indians (34-26) | Cubs |
| 2015 | Royals (35-25) | Mets (31-29) | Cardinals (39-21) |
| 2014 | Giants (39-21) | Royals (29-31) | Giants |
| 2013 | Red Sox (36-24) | Cardinals (39-21) | Cardinals |
| 2012 | Giants (34-26) | Tigers (28-32) | Dodgers (38-22) |
| 2011 | Cardinals (35-25) | Rangers (34-26) | Phillies (36-24) |
| 2010 | Giants (33-27) | Rangers (33-27) | Rays (39-21) |
Fade the favorites
We've been preaching it all summer long, but the data backs it up: Don't put your money behind the prohibitive favorite.
We know this to be true across a full-length season. In the last 10 years, only the 2016 Cubs (+660) even reached the World Series as a preseason favorite, let alone won it. But the same applies in a shortened season: Only those Cubs and the 2011 Phillies (+350) led the majors in wins after the first 60 games.
Having the best record entering the playoffs doesn't guarantee a World Series title - just ask the Dodgers - but ahead of this shortened season, it's the best way for us to measure a team's likely playoff success. And that threshold hasn't been pretty for favorites.
Among the last 10 preseason front-runners, five of them won 29-31 games through 60 games, with just two topping the standings over that stretch. That's not encouraging for this year's Dodgers (+350) and Yankees (+350), who enter a volatile field with the shortest World Series odds.
That doesn't mean fading good teams, however. Nine of the last 60-game leaders finished the year ranked in the top two in either runs scored or ERA; last year's Dodgers topped both marks. It may seem like circular logic - the best teams have the best stats - but it underscores the importance of having elite hitting or pitching. Just don't lay the shortest price to find it.
Don't believe in miracles
In a shortened season, it's easy to believe that anything can happen. Many use last year's Nationals as the prime example - if they turned it around after a 27-33 start, couldn't a long shot get hot over 60 games?
But a lousy start is different from a lousy roster. Those same Nationals were 16-1 to win it all when the season began, with star-level bats and two clear Cy Young-caliber aces on their staff. In fact, all eight of the World Series participants in the last four years have been 17-1 or shorter to open the year.
Since 2010, all 20 World Series participants have opened the year with 33-1 odds or shorter. Over half checked in at 20-1 or shorter - which would narrow this year's field to 12 teams. The 60-game leader has averaged a preseason title price of roughly 15-1, and the last five have been 12-1 or shorter. Only four teams fit that bill this year.
That isn't to say a club with longer odds can't win it all; the Diamondbacks (+4000) are among our best bets in the field. But precedent is against them or any team further down the oddsboard making a run, even in a shorter season.
Business as usual?
Ultimately, the difference between a 60-game slate and 162-game slate may be overstated. Four of the last six World Series winners also topped the standings after 60 games, and only one World Series finalist (2019 Nationals) in the last five years had a losing record after 60 games.
Of course, the issue of players missing time due to positive COVID-19 tests could throw the entire market into flux, and there's no real way to account for that. Oddsmakers have tightened prices on long shots and offered more generous prices on favorites for that very reason - in a sense, anything can happen with so much uncertainty.
But if 60-game results tell us anything, it's to rely on what we already know about betting the World Series market. Don't go all-in on the front-runner, but don't fall in love with the biggest long shots. Even in this unprecedented season, the winner is likely to be somewhere in between.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.