8 betting X-factors for 2020 NFL season

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As much as we can speculate about the upcoming NFL season, a few variables could shake up the entire league. Take Lamar Jackson, for example. If he'd played to expectations last season, the Ravens would have been lucky to make the playoffs. Instead, they won 14 games behind his MVP performance.

Not every team has a Jackson-like wild card, of course, but there are plenty of volatile situations that will significantly affect the market this year. Here are eight betting X-factors for the 2020 NFL season.

Tom Brady

Let's face it: Tom Brady wasn't great in 2019. The Patriots found success because of their defense, not their offense, and if Brady plays to a similar level in 2020, the Buccaneers' short title odds (+1000) will feel foolish. Remember, though, that Brady is only three years removed from an MVP season, and this might be his best-ever supporting cast. It's Super Bowl or bust in Tampa Bay.

Rookie receivers

One of the most dominant receiver classes we've ever seen could shape the identity of the league in 2020. Speedsters like Henry Ruggs and Jalen Reagor should impact the playoff chances for the Raiders (+270) and Eagles (-230), respectively, while the 49ers (+800 to win it all) could have used Brandon Aiyuk in the Super Bowl last season.

That said, an unorthodox offseason could hurt the chemistry and scheme fits for first-year wideouts. A shortened summer didn't seem to affect top rookie receivers after the 2011 lockout (A.J. Green, Julio Jones); will it this year?

Josh Allen

There is no player whose range of outcomes is greater than Josh Allen's. If Allen reaches his full potential, he's a tremendous MVP value (+6600) on a loaded roster with solid Super Bowl odds (+2200). If he's as bad as he's shown at times in his first two seasons, the Bills will be lucky to top 8.5 games (under +115), and their odds of missing the playoffs (+165) would look juicy, too.

The new playoff format

Since the NFL introduced the 12-team playoff format in 1990, teams with a first-round bye (i.e. No. 1 and No. 2 seeds) earned 48 of 60 spots in the Super Bowl and won the last seven championships.

This year, only No. 1 seeds get a free pass, so it could be worth paying the premium on possible No. 1 seeds like the Chiefs (+500), Ravens (+650), 49ers (+800), or Saints (+900). The extra playoff berth also means paying additional attention to teams in the 20-1 to 30-1 range, given what the Titans nearly pulled off a season ago from the final wild-card spot.

Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield needs more time in the pocket than most signal-callers, so the Browns invested in their offensive line and brought in Kevin Stefanski, who excelled at creating a stable quarterback environment in Minnesota. It should be enough for Cleveland to make the playoffs (+135) and even flirt with a title run (+2700), but another skittish season from Mayfield would spell disaster.

Home-field advantage

Even if the NFL schedule plays out without a hitch, there's a good chance there won't be as many fans in the seats as in previous seasons, if at all. That could swing the value for teams who have traditionally seen drastic home-road splits.

Consider the Chargers, who have the most road wins against the spread (40) since 2010 but are tied for the fewest home wins ATS (22) in that span. And what about the Vikings? They're by far the league's best bet at home since 2016 (20-9-4 ATS) but have a losing record on the road (15-17-2 ATS).

Drew Lock

Drew Lock showed glimpses in 2019, including one of the season's best games by QBR, but he was also a disaster at times. If he can find consistency, the Broncos are built for success around him and are an absolute steal at 10-1 to win the AFC West. If not, under 7.5 wins (-110) is a "lock."

Mike McCarthy

The Cowboys were analytics darlings a year ago but stumbled to an 8-8 record thanks in part to lackluster coaching. The NFC East is the tightest division in oddsmakers' minds, and a competent coaching job from Mike McCarthy should be enough to cash in as division favorites (+100). But this is a tricky offseason to integrate a brand-new regime, so there's a decent chance the Cowboys could miss the playoffs entirely (+175).

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.