Using turnover differential to find value in NFL betting market

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If you're tired of hearing football coaches and analysts discuss the importance of the turnover battle, maybe you should start listening - it could be the key to winning your bets.

Consider the results from the 2019 NFL season. If you only bet on the team that won the turnover battle, you'd have cashed your bet 76.6% of the time, winning by more than a touchdown on average. The team with the better turnover margin has covered at least 75% of the time in every season since 2002, with a 78.7% cover rate combined over the last 20 seasons.

Of course, it isn't that easy to predict who will cough up the ball before each game. But finding which teams generally win the turnover battle can be a gold mine to weekly success.

Take a look at this chart from 2019 that describes every team's turnover stats, followed by their ATS record. (Turnovers from The Football Database, ATS from Sports Database)

Of the 14 teams with a positive turnover differential, only one had a losing record against the spread. Ten of the top 11 teams by turnover rate made the playoffs, and all 11 finished .500 or better against the number. Conversely, of the 15 teams with a negative turnover differential, only three had winning records ATS, and only one (Philadelphia) made the playoffs.

Turnovers tend to be volatile from year to year, which leaves plenty of opportunity to bet on teams whose records could normalize in 2020. Some teams' situations lend themselves to wild swings in turnover margin, too, which creates value for the speculative bettor.

Here are a few teams that could provide ATS value next year based solely on turnover margin:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2019 ATS record (TO margin): 5-9-2 (-13)

This one is so obvious that the value may be sapped dry by Week 1, but there's no greater candidate for the "turnover bump" than Tampa Bay. Under Jameis Winston, the Bucs turned it over a league-high 41 times in 2019, forcing their defense into the worst average starting field position in the league.

Compare that to the Patriots - a team that was tied for the third-fewest giveaways (15) and owned the league's best starting field position. Tom Brady should settle things down in his new home, which in turn will be a boon to weekly bettors - assuming the hype train doesn't ruin the ATS market.

New England Patriots

2019 ATS record (TO margin): 9-7 (+21)

Speaking of Brady and the Patriots, it'll be hard to replicate an absurd plus-21 turnover margin - the highest by any team since New England in 2012 - especially with second-year QB Jarrett Stidham at the helm. The defense is also a major regression candidate after losing multiple key pieces in the front seven. For all the reasons to buy the Bucs, sell the Patriots.

Denver Broncos

2019 ATS record (TO margin): 8-7-1 (+1)

The Broncos were in the middle of the pack for ATS success and turnover rate in 2019, but ranked 31st in the NFL in takeaways per drive (0.89) - a number that's sure to improve with a healthier defense and revamped pass rush. A full year of Drew Lock could mean more giveaways, too, but expect the net turnover margin to rise in Denver and the record to follow.

Pittsburgh Steelers

2019 ATS record (TO margin): 8-8 (+8)

While turnovers as a whole are volatile, fumbles are especially so - and fumble recoveries are almost entirely out of a team's control. So the regression bells are ringing after Pittsburgh recovered 18 fumbles last year, the most by any team since 2012. The Steelers were the only non-playoff team with a top-11 turnover rate in 2019, so with a more typical fumble recovery rate, their +120 odds to miss the postseason are even more appetizing.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.