AFC West win totals: Chiefs face tough road to 12 victories

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With most NFL rosters taking shape, we're revisiting the win totals for every division. With seven down, we finish with the division of the defending Super Bowl champions: the AFC West.

After hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February, the Chiefs enter 2020 tied for the NFL's highest preseason win total, though they could face a tougher road this year after busy offseasons for the Chargers, Broncos, and Raiders.

Here are the division's win totals from theScore Bet in New Jersey:

Kansas City Chiefs (11.5)

What's left to say about the Chiefs, who have averaged 11 wins over the last seven seasons and won 12 games in back-to-back years? The offense could be even more explosive than last year, while the defense showed improvement late in the campaign.

The issue here is the number itself: Since 2006, 60 teams have won at least 12 games, but only 19 of them reached that mark again the following year, according to PFF. No other division has four teams with win totals at 7.5 or higher, so the Chiefs could struggle to win 12 games.

Los Angeles Chargers (7.5)

There's a lot to like about Los Angeles heading into 2020. An already promising defense now boasts elite potential after adding Chris Harris Jr. and Kenneth Murray, and the inclusions of Bryan Bulaga and Trai Turner are crucial for a long-suffering offensive line.

Is it enough? Whether it's Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert behind center, another year of substandard O-line play would severely hinder this team's progress. We still lean to the over on the strength of L.A.'s secondary, which is crucial in this division, but the offensive line will probably dictate this team's fate.

Denver Broncos (7.5)

As we broke down in detail earlier this week, Denver teases double-digit-win upside after a strong offseason that saw an infusion of offensive talent and smart improvements to a defense that already flashed elite potential in 2019.

It all comes down to Drew Lock, who showed wild swings but found success in limited action a year ago. If the Broncos can limit his responsibility, an eight-win campaign is an easy buy.

Las Vegas Raiders (7.5)

It's easy to forget the Raiders won seven games last year and were a couple unlucky breaks away from stealing the final playoff spot. Still, despite its record, Las Vegas was distinctly below average in 2019 by advanced metrics, and its 31st-ranked defense by DVOA still has glaring needs in the secondary.

The Raiders are well suited to dominate the run game on both sides of the ball, but is that enough in 2020? A shoddy secondary means overcoming big deficits, and we don't love this offense's ability to do so on a consistent basis. In a tough division, we lean under.

Best bet

Broncos over 7.5 wins

All four teams have a legitimate shot at reaching the playoffs, but of the three non-KC clubs, Denver's floor feels the highest given its talent on defense and stable pieces around its quarterback. Unless Lock is a train wreck, it's hard to see the Broncos winning fewer games than they did a year ago.

If you're going to fade a team in this division, it'd be Las Vegas, which has the worst single unit in the division (its defense) and will need time to integrate key starters brought in via free agency. The Chiefs are also a reasonable fade if only because of the overall strength of the AFC West.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.