AFC South win totals: Too many problems in Houston

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With most NFL rosters taking shape, we're revisiting the win totals for every division. After breaking down the NFC, we'll look at the tightest divisional race in the other conference: the AFC South.

The Texans won 10 games last season and the Titans are coming off an AFC title game berth, but the new-look Colts are the early favorites in the betting market. Even the Jaguars, considered by oddsmakers as the NFL's worst team, have the talent to steal a few games.

Here are the division's win totals from theScore Bet in New Jersey:

Indianapolis Colts (8.5)

We aren't in love with Indianapolis' short price to win the division, but this win total still seems too low. The Colts were a competent passing game away from contention a year ago, and they've since added Philip Rivers to complement their athletic offensive weapons and stout O-line.

For those skeptical of Rivers' fit, consider how poor the Chargers' pass protection has been for years and how immobile Rivers is as a passer. The situation in Indy suits him perfectly. The Colts averaged 9.8 wins in Andrew Luck's six healthy seasons and arguably have a better defense in 2020.

Tennessee Titans (8.5)

Usually, when a team makes the AFC title game and brings back its core, there's a little more hype than what the Titans are generating. Are bettors skeptical of Ryan Tannehill, who passed every test with flying colors? Will defenses suddenly bottle up Derrick Henry, who busted every scheme in 2019?

Regression looms, sure, but this team went 7-3 in Tannehill's 10 starts without a full offseason to install him as the starter. Until teams can prove capable of slowing the Titans' offense, there's no need to fade such a reasonable number.

Houston Texans (7.5)

The unfavorable response to the Texans trading DeAndre Hopkins has overshadowed the multitude of problems this team has outside of that deal. Houston's defense was a train wreck in 2019 and got worse this summer, and its offensive line is a lingering issue, as always.

And then, of course, there's the giant hole on offense, which puts a lot of pressure on either Will Fuller or Brandin Cooks to assume a lead role that neither has ever fully embraced. There's a lot not to like here, which makes the under an easy buy.

Jacksonville Jaguars (5)

There's a strong case for both sides of this number. If Gardner Minshew can pilot an average offense, the Jaguars' surprisingly talented defense could emerge as a borderline top-10 unit if its first- and second-year players gel. If they don't, it's a lot to ask of Minshew to bail them out.

Despite winning six games a year ago, the Jaguars are clearly trying to rebuild, so we're happy to stay away from this number entirely. Don't be surprised if things aren't all doom and gloom in Jacksonville, though.

Best bet

Texans under 7.5 wins

As if their underwhelming roster moves weren't enough to fade, the Texans' schedule is downright brutal, especially early. With the Colts and Titans both looking promising in 2020, last year's division champions will have a tough time cracking .500.

Speaking of the Titans, last year's conference runners-up were easily a top-five team over the back half of 2019, and they retain the core pieces from a group that flourished through adversity. Tennessee is in a strong position to pick up where it left off en route to a nine- or 10-win campaign, especially if the offseason is shortened.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.