Why the Broncos are worth betting to win the AFC West
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It was only four years ago that the Denver Broncos hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, the apex of a five-year run featuring five straight AFC West titles and four 12-win seasons.
Since then, it's been mostly downhill, with the team missing the playoffs in four straight seasons. Meanwhile, the rival Chiefs won the division in each of those years, and they're fresh off their own Super Bowl victory in February.
Fittingly, Kansas City enters this season with -500 odds to win the AFC West, by far the shortest price of any division favorite, while the Broncos are distant 10-1 long shots to reclaim the divisional crown - tied for the fourth-longest divisional odds.
Despite that, betting Denver to win the division is one of the best value wagers in the NFL due to the squad's loaded roster and clear path to contention at an intriguing price.
An offense built around Lock
After a miserable 3-8 start to last season, the Broncos finally handed the reins to rookie Drew Lock, who guided the team to a 4-1 finish while posting the season's fourth-best game by QBR (Week 14 against Houston). He struggled under pressure, which is typical for a rookie, but his highs teased the potential that once put him in the conversation to be a top-10 pick.
We've already laid out Lock's MVP case for 2020, which has as much to do with his arm talent as his supporting cast. The Broncos were one of just two teams to earn an A+ draft grade and above-average free agency grade from PFF, and much of that improvement came offensively.
In the draft, Denver added all-around stud Jerry Jeudy and speedster KJ Hamler to a receiving corps that big-bodied star Courtland Sutton already headlines. Those three complement each other perfectly at all three levels of the field, and the Broncos' tight ends room is as athletic as any in the NFL.
Inconsistent line play stifled Denver's promising rushing attack in 2019, but adding Melvin Gordon behind a rebuilt offensive line will lead to a new ceiling for the Broncos' ground game. That also eases the burden on Lock, who was among the better signal-callers on a throw-by-throw basis last year when not under pressure.
We've seen this play out before, as the Ravens, 49ers, and Titans all entered last year with uncertain quarterback situations, and they built their offenses around volume-based run games and high-upside rookie pass-catchers. All three teams ended the year ranked in the top five in touchdowns per drive.
Elite defense with room to grow
Denver's offense probably won't reach the heights of those three squads, but it won't have to if its defense plays to its potential in Year 2 under defensive whiz Vic Fangio - especially given how well it played through adversity in 2019.
The Broncos' defense started five different players at cornerback and lost star edge rusher Bradley Chubb in Week 4 to an ACL injury. Still, Denver ranked fourth in touchdowns allowed and boasted the league's best red-zone defense, even against the fourth-toughest schedule for any defense, per DVOA.
That's even more impressive when considering the team's lackluster pass rush with Chubb on the shelf. Von Miller played below his standards, but a healthy Miller-Chubb combo and the addition of veteran lineman Jurrell Casey portends a potentially devastating pass rush.
More pressure on the quarterback will help the Broncos create more opportunities after ranking 31st in turnovers forced per drive a year ago. Turnovers are typically volatile from year to year - Denver ranked 11th in the stat in 2018 - and a loaded front seven should help normalize the turnover battle.
Add in former Jaguars corner A.J. Bouye and a healthy Bryce Callahan to the secondary, and the Broncos' defense is set to improve upon a unit that already ranked in the top five in overall PFF grade last season. In a division with Patrick Mahomes, that's key to pulling off a surprise divisional run.
High upside at a low price
For as dreadful as the Broncos looked at times in 2019, they still finished 7-9. If they weren't so unlucky early on, they might have flirted with divisional spoils.
Denver went 2-4 in games decided by four or fewer points last season, which included a pair of two-point losses amid an 0-4 start. A late-season surge by Lock couldn't save the campaign, but it showed what this team is capable of entering 2020.
If any club can upend the Chiefs in the AFC West, it's this Broncos team. Its pass rush has the potential to ruin Mahomes' rhythm, and its run-heavy, ball-control offense is Kansas City's kryptonite, making Denver the perfect foil to its division rival.
Betting on Lock and a cast of young guns to usurp the champs is a tough sell, especially with a potentially shortened offseason. But it's not often you get divisional odds like this on a team with so much upside, and Denver has too much talent not to take a shot.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.