AFC North win totals: Buy post-hype Browns at a discount

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With most NFL rosters taking shape, we're revisiting the win totals for every division. With five divisions down, we tackle one that can legitimately boast of four teams on the rise: the AFC North.

It was hardly a competition in this division last season, as the Ravens (14-2) won the AFC North by six games. But the Steelers (8-8 in 2019), Browns (6-10), and Bengals (2-14) can all make cases for improvement in 2020, which could lead to some late-season intrigue when it comes to win totals.

Here are the division's win totals from theScore Bet in New Jersey:

Baltimore Ravens (11.5)

The Ravens owns the highest win total on the market - and it still might be short-selling their prospects heading into 2020. Baltimore returns 10 of 11 starters from last year's record-setting offense, and the team addressed its holes up front (Calais Campbell, Derek Wolfe) and at linebacker (Patrick Queen) by adding some premier talents this summer.

With a healthier secondary, Baltimore checks nearly every box for a contender. By conventional metrics, the Ravens are also staring down an easier schedule than they were this time last year. Even if regression hits, 12 wins is still manageable for arguably the best team in football.

Pittsburgh Steelers (9)

On paper, this looks like an easy over. Pittsburgh's quarterback situation was a train wreck last year, and the team still managed eight wins behind a dominant defense and persistent run game. But the Steelers also won only nine games when they had a healthy Ben Roethlisberger and a better supporting cast in 2018.

If the defense drops even slightly from last year's elite level, Roethlisberger will need to elevate a group lacking the top-end talent and depth of years past. Nine wins is probably right on the nose, but with Baltimore and Cleveland lurking, going over this number is asking for trouble.

Cleveland Browns (8.5)

The betting world was a year too early on Cleveland. It's important to admit that - because this year's win total is priced too low for a talented team that made meaningful improvements in the offseason.

The offensive line - last year's biggest scapegoat - received a summer makeover with the additions of Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills Jr., which should help bring out the best in Baker Mayfield. So should new coach Kevin Stefanski, who worked wonders with Kirk Cousins in Minnesota.

Cincinnati Bengals (5.5)

Remember how we were all a year too early on Cleveland? Don't make the same mistake with Cincinnati. Yes, Joe Burrow is a stud, and he's surrounded by an underrated group of playmakers. But the offensive line is still a major question mark, and the defense has been patched together overnight.

An optimist would point to the Bengals' eight straight seasons with at least six wins prior to last year's debacle. That run is the reason I can't sell the under too strongly here, and a magical rookie season from Burrow could be enough to get Cincinnati back to that point. Just don't invest too heavily in such a lofty goal.

Best bet

Browns over 8.5 wins

It's hard to erase the stink of last season, but it's somewhat surprising to see the market swing so wildly on a team that flashed promise despite a disastrous offensive line and miserable coaching. The Browns addressed both issues this offseason, and the results should be immediate. This over comes at a great price, too, so don't let 2019 scare you when playing this year's number.

The Ravens are also among the safest bets to hit their win total, even at such a high number. Those two teams are reason enough to fade Pittsburgh, which has some work to do offensively before it returns to double-digit wins.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.