AFC East win totals: Bills an easy bet over Patriots

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With most NFL rosters taking shape, we're revisiting the win totals for every division. After breaking down the NFC last week, we're starting the other conference with a division that is as wide-open as it's been in two decades: the AFC East.

The Patriots still hold the longest division-title streak in NFL history (11) after winning 12 games in a middling AFC East a year ago. But the Bills are well-suited to outpace their rivals this year, while the Jets and Dolphins both made offseason improvements that give hope for a winning season.

Here are the division's win totals from theScore Bet in New Jersey:

New England Patriots (9)

This number has been creeping lower all offseason, but bettors are still hesitant to fully embrace the fade. And I get it. But remove the logo and jerseys from this squad and it's hard to see a 10-win group in what's left after free agency.

Jarrett Stidham is the quarterback, as much as the NFL community wants to believe otherwise. He has few weapons to help him, and the offensive line is in flux. Last year's defense, which looked unbeatable early before faltering late, has been gutted in the front seven. Still want to bet the over? Bill Belichick is only worth so many wins without a roster that can succeed.

Buffalo Bills (8.5)

If you've read just about any NFL articles this year, you know how high I am on the Bills, and with good reason. The team returns nearly its entire starting lineup and coaching staff - a godsend in a potentially shortened offseason - and added star receiver Stefon Diggs to a group that has tantalizing upside if Josh Allen takes another step.

And if he doesn't? This team won 10 games in 2019 behind a subpar campaign from the second-year QB. The division is easier, the roster is better, and Allen has made impressive strides in past offseasons. This number is alarmingly low, and I can't buy enough over stock.

New York Jets (6.5)

If the Jets surrounded Sam Darnold the way the Bills have with Allen, this might be a different story. But New York is trapped in a never-ending cycle of bad offensive-line play and mediocre wide receivers, stifling the growth of its young QB.

This team still won seven games a year ago, so going over this number isn't crazy. Doing so would mean significant growth on offense or sustaining last year's elite defensive play, however, and we wouldn't bank on either. A cautious pass.

Miami Dolphins (6)

The Dolphins have a lower number at a cheaper over price than the Jets, but Miami has a better chance at cracking .500 after throwing serious cash at Byron Jones, Kyle Van Noy, Shaq Lawson, and other potential starters to reinvent its talent-thin defense.

It'll take some time for that unit to jell, which lines up well with Tua Tagovailoa's timeline to potentially take over on offense. The Dolphins are in a perfect position to catch fire by season's end and reward patient over bettors.

Best bet

Bills over 8.5 wins

This is the best wins totals bet on the market, and there's a good chance this number won't stay at 8.5 for long. The Bills have arguably a top-three roster outside of quarterback in the NFL, so you're betting on Allen not being so bad that this team is .500 or worse. He won't be.

With three teams taking clear steps forward this offseason, the Patriots are an easy under, especially if the market keeps getting distracted by memories of an expired dynasty. If you're going over on one of the other two squads, bet Miami, which is set up nicely for a late-season run.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.