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NFC North win totals: Packers, Vikings due for regression in 2020

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With most NFL rosters taking shape, we're revisiting the win totals for every division. After breaking down the top-heavy NFC East and NFC South, we'll try to make sense of the deep (but flawed) NFC North.

In 2019, the Packers (13-3) and Vikings (10-6) exceeded expectations, but both teams look like classic regression candidates in 2020. So do the Bears (8-8), while the Lions (3-12-1) still need to prove themselves following a disastrous season. Can any of these teams surprise in what feels like a wide-open year?

Here are the division's win totals from theScore Bet in New Jersey:

TEAM WIN TOTAL OVER UNDER
Green Bay Packers 9 -105 -115
Minnesota Vikings 8.5 -130 +110
Chicago Bears 8 -110 -110
Detroit Lions 6.5 -125 +105

Green Bay Packers (9)

We would adore the under if this number wasn't already so low, but that speaks to how the market views Green Bay after a stellar but unsustainable run in 2019. The Packers were 7-1 in one-score games last year, by far the NFL's best mark, and their DVOA was the second-worst of any 13-win team since 1985.

Does that justify shaving four wins off a team that still features Aaron Rodgers? Perhaps not. But going with the over means betting on the Packers to win 10 times after their 2019 scoring margin ranked just above average, and after an offseason without significant improvement. No thanks.

Minnesota Vikings (8.5)

It's long felt like the Vikings' roster is on the verge of a breakout year, but that window might finally be passing. The team traded star receiver Stefon Diggs and lost edge rusher Everson Griffen to free agency this offseason, and Minnesota did little to upgrade its aging defense aside from overpaying run-stuffer Michael Pierce.

If there's a reason for optimism, though, it usually lies in the club's infrastructure. Minnesota has won eight-plus games in five straight years, which includes three campaigns with 10-plus victories. But with a new offensive coordinator and recycled faces on defense, this isn't the year to go all-in.

Chicago Bears (8)

Nick Foles or Mitchell Trubisky? The answer to that question - and your opinion of both quarterbacks - probably determines whether you lean over or under here. Given how bad the quarterback play has been in Chicago under the latter, we're optimistic after the acquisition of the former.

Trubisky has been a liability for two straight seasons under Matt Nagy, and the Bears still won at least eight games both years. Their defense retains the same star-level talent that's led to consecutive top-10 rankings on that side of the ball. Is a competent Foles enough to hit nine wins, if he's given the chance? We think so.

Detroit Lions (6.5)

The Lions won three games last year, traded arguably their best defender in Darius Slay, and return the same head coach and quarterback from 2019. So why is their win total 3.5 games higher than the result last campaign? Because an influx of defensive talent and some offensive stability could be enough for the club to break out in 2020.

Detroit's offense was surprisingly efficient over eight games under Matthew Stafford before his mid-season injury in 2019, and the unit returns its core while adding playmaker D'Andre Swift to the backfield. The Lions also revamped their defense with big-name signings (Jamie Collins Sr., Desmond Trufant) and a top draft pick (Jeff Okudah).

Best bet

Lions over 6.5 wins

Don't forget that the Lions won seven-plus games each season from 2014 to 2017, and they notched six victories in 2018 before last year's injury-riddled campaign. It might be a year too early for this group, but with how skeptical we are about the other three NFC North teams heading into 2020, there's no better time to buy low on a Detroit roster with some legitimate talent and its arrow pointing up.

It's tempting to go under on Green Bay, especially if Jordan Love's presence causes locker-room friction. An over bet on the Bears is worth a flier, but only if you can live through the stress of that quarterback competition. We'll happily watch from afar.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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